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Demographic Delusion

Updated: March 1st, 2026, 08:01 IST
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Aakar Patel
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There are things that this nation is agitated about and there is real news. One of the things we are agitated about, in our media particularly, and in WhatsApp groups, is demographic change and love jihad and the rest of it. Data does not support our worries but why should facts be relevant when we have conviction?

The News Minute published the latest set of numbers on conversions in Kerala. Remember that this is the state whose high court, in December 2009, announced it suspected a ‘plan to trap brilliant upper caste Hindu and Christian girls from well-to-do families’. This casual remark, made by a judge who accepted that he had no evidence, began the conspiracy theory of love jihad, which remains with us today.

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The News Minute collected conversion data from the state, whose law requires that every conversion be recorded. The numbers from 2024 show that the state had a total of 963 conversions. Of these, 543 were women and 420 were men. The total number of individuals converting to Hinduism were 365 (of whom 329 were previously Christian and 36 previously Muslim). Converts to Islam were lower, at 343 (of whom 276 were previously Hindu and 67 Christian). Converts to Christianity were 255 (of whom 234 were Hindu and 23 Muslim).

There is no love jihad or anything else going on in Kerala. The data will not surprise those who have been following it for some time. In my book ‘Our Hindu Rashtra’, which was published a few years ago, I looked at the numbers from the past.

On 7 March 2017, Malayalam Manorama reported the research by a non-profit organisation (Media Development and Research Foundation, Kozhikode) which showed 60 per cent of those who had converted in Kerala between January 2011 and December 2017 chose to become Hindus. Gazette records of changed names showed that 8,334 people had converted in the seven-year period, of whom 4,968 chose to become Hindu, of which the vast majority, 4,756, were Christian and 212 Muslim. Of the total, the number of women was 2,244 and the men 2,724.

Of the 1,864 who became Muslim, 78 per cent were previously Hindu, again with men and women converts being roughly equal. And of the 1,496 who became Christian, 95 per cent were Hindu, with 720 women and 776 men. Six individuals chose to become Buddhist, of whom five were Hindu, one was Christian and there were a total of two women and four men.

A newspaper report in a couple of years before that (‘Nearly 6,000 converted to Islam in Kerala in 5 years: Report’, 15 July 2016) quoted an ‘intelligence report’ filed by the police showing that 5,793 people had converted between 2011 and 2015. Of these about half were men and half women. Hindus converting were 4,719 with 1,074 being Christians.

There will be uncles in WhatsApp groups heavily indoctrinated by the government and the voices in their own head. They may dismiss this as just being fake news. Such people should consider what happened in the Lok Sabha on 4 February 2020. A question was asked by Benny Behanan, member of parliament representing Chalakudy in Thrissur. He asked the Home Ministry to say whether it was aware of any cases of love jihad and if so what were the details of this.

The ministry replied: ‘Article 25 of the Constitution provides for the freedom to profess, practice and propagate religion subject to public order, morality and health. Various courts have upheld this view including the Kerala High Court. The term ‘Love Jihad’ is not defined under the extant laws. No such case of ‘Love Jihad’ has been reported by any of the central agencies.’

A question then arises. If love jihad is not a real thing and the government accepts that it is not a real thing and the data on conversions shows it is not a real thing, then why is it being discussed at all, let alone at the frenzy levels we associate it with?

There are two reasons for this in my opinion. The first is that the real news is not favourable to the narrative of New India. If we were to discuss how spectacularly incompetent the intelligence agencies are, based on a recent case in which the United States has caught and jailed an Indian citizen, the government would not be able to preen as it does about national security. If it were to be discussed how a totally false case was filed against a party and its chief minister jailed because the BJP wanted to overthrow it, we would not be able to as confidently tell the world we are the mother of democracy. And so the focus is on other things and the government wants to keep the focus there. All of that is one reason.

The other reason is that the narrative of Hindutva has become so acceptable that even the facts do not do much to dent it. An outright lie that is accepted as a lie by the government in the Lok Sabha is still material enough for the BJP to have passed in seven states since 2018 laws that tackle this myth. This has become our reality.

The latest data will come as reassurance to those who know the BJP project is misguided and damaging, and as a puzzle to those who had bought the lie but are open to be swayed based on information and analysis. But it will likely do nothing to shift the views of those parts of the Hindutva base that have become enchanted by the voices of conspiracy and doom permanently occupying their heads.

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