Two momentous events happened almost simultaneously last week in faraway places but with a common theme, resetting the emerging geopolitical order badly fractured with the continuing conflicts in West Asia and Europe, the Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing (May 13-15) and the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ meeting in New Delhi (May 14-15). Both were significant developments though the proceedings bordered more on optics than substance and ran along predictable lines. While the much-awaited Great Power Summit set the contours along issues largely known – Taiwan, the Iran war, tariffs, trade, high technology and investments – the BRICS meeting could not get beyond a non-consequential assembly with India’s cautious approach of holding the 10 (5+5) group together.
President Trump seemed exhausted after having spent much of his energy and image in a fruitless war codenamed “Epic Fury,” engineered by Israel in the White House in mid-February. Trump had postponed the dates of the summit from March to May wishing to greet his Chinese counterpart with the air of a victor. That was not to be as the US-Israel-Iran war had prolonged with on-again off-again attacks and counter-attacks interspersed with two ceasefires. Iran has used its leverage by blocking the Strait of Hormuz through which one fifth of global oil and gas pass, thus strangulating global energy markets and maritime flows, disrupting supply chains leading to a deep economic crisis affecting the world at large.
Pakistan has continued with its mediation efforts one round of US-Iran high-level negotiations having failed with Israel not being a party, while Iran has not ceded to Trump’s maximalist demands of giving up its nuclear enrichment process along with the enriched uranium and its missile and drone stockpiles. On the contrary, it has upped the ante by demanding war reparations, security guarantees, end of sanctions and US to close down its bases in the region.
Trump, given pressures at home with a continuing downslide in popularity ratings even among his MAGA base and with an eye on the forth coming mid-term elections, has been seeking a withdraw al from the Middle East war on his terms while Iran has held steadfast to its position. Thus, soon after his return from Beijing Trump announced another imminent attack on Iran in continuation of his “maximum pressure” policy despite Congressional objections to continuation of the war.
Expectedly, the major topic of discussion between the two leaders was to stand against the militarisation of the Strait and allow free flow of energy and maritime traffic. Xi apparently agreed to this while telling Trump to “manage” the Taiwan issue properly, otherwise (US-China) relations could descend into “clashes and conflicts,” forbidding future arms sales to Taiwan. Trump in pursuance of US’ policy of strategic ambiguity just heard him out.
Accompanied by a stellar group of corporate honchos, Trump bagged an order for 200 Boeings with assurance for a second tranche. The Chinese side played the rare earths card well, the tariff issue got dropped while determination on sanctions on Chinese companies involved in procuring oil from Iran was deferred. There were proposals for setting up Boards for Investment and Trade. Both sides called for a “new vision” for building “stable and constructive relations’ while Xi quoted Greek historian Thucydides in cautioning that there were risks of war when a rising power challenges an established power explaining that “achieving great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and MAGA could go hand in hand. Iranian FM Araghchi’s visit to Beijing on May 6 to brief the Chinese government on developments in the region would have left no one in doubt of the clout China has come to acquire in the region.
The BRICS FM’s meeting, on the other hand, saw the severest test of India’s balancing act as the Chair. While EAM Jaishankar marked a sober tone in calling for respect for international law and the need for dialogue and diplomacy, the proceedings of the meeting were anything but consensual with verbal clashes marked between Iran and UAE from the word go. To recall, India had refrained from issuing any statement on behalf of the group during the war on the ground that some of the members were involved in the conflict. That came out in the open as FM Araghchi accused his UAE counterpart of not having condemned the “un lawful” aggression of US and Israel on Iran, rather actively collaborated with them, even allowing its air bases to mount attacks on Iran. He added that neither the US nor Israel could guarantee security to UAE, asking UAE to close down US bases in its territory. He also pointed out that BRICS as a group had also not condemned the attack despite Iran’s ap peal. Jaishankar in his Chair’s address came out with two important statements, the growing use of unilateral sanctions and coercive economic measures which hurt interests of the developing countries, and support for the two-state solution on the Palestine issue while calling for a “sustained ceasefire” in Gaza. All this while PM Modi during a brief halt in Abu Dhabi on the first leg of his 5-nation tour of Europe (May 15) signed a slew of agreements on energy (building strategic reserves on oil and gas in India), defence, trade, shipping and advanced technology while UAE com mitted an investment of $5 billion in India. The PM’s visit could also be a part of the I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-USA) track which UAE after exiting from the Saudi-dominated OPEC in early May is free to pursue with its own energy options.
With India’s strategic autonomy and economy severely strained under the exigencies of the continuing US-Israel-Iran conflict, it would need to deftly manage US pressures while navigating the likelihood of a growing China-Russia-Iran nexus with Pakistan as the common factor. The visit of President Putin to China (May 19-20) days after the US President’s visit would further strengthen the special privileged relationship of the two Great Powers while Trump finds himself isolated with the Gulf stalemate bearing down hard on him. It’s time for India here and now to take a decisive step forward.
The writer is a retired diplomat and foreign policy analyst.
