By Dhurjati Mukherjee
India is likely to see below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years in 2026, the government stated recently, stoking concerns over farm output and growth in Asia’s third-largest economy as it battles inflation due to the West Asian conflict.
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It is well-known that the monsoon is the lifeblood of the country’s nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering almost 70% of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs. As per IMD, the monsoon is expected to reach 92% of the long-period average (LPA) this year.
This happens to be the lowest in nearly three decades, though an updated outlook is expected in the last week of May. “Currently weak El Niño-like conditions are transitioning to neutral conditions, but after June it’s very likely that El Nino will develop,” observed Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD Director General. In the past, 70% of El Nino years since 1980 corresponded with poor summer monsoons in the country.
Experts are of the opinion that the ongoing West Asian crisis, coupled with lower rainfall, may have an adverse impact on farm yields as well as GDP growth. Between 1901 and 2018, India’s average annual temperature increased by about 0.7°C.
New temperature-breaking records have been witnessed with 2016, 2020 and 2024 being the hottest years in the present century. However, changing global climate and rapid anthropogenic activities can increase and amplify heatwaves’ intensity, frequency and duration, and related events. Heatwave-like conditions this year arrived earlier than expected, raising concerns among meteorologists, health experts, and policymakers.
Several regions across northern, central, and western India have already begun experiencing unusually high temperatures weeks before the traditional peak summer period. In fact, reports indicated that February 2026 was the 5th warmest on record since 1901. IMD’s summer 2026 prediction covers maximum and minimum temperatures — meaning nights won’t cool down either.
High-risk heatwave zones such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh may, like 2024, push peak power demand to a then-record 250 GW. The geography is mapped; the trend is clear. What matters now is what happens when the heat hits at scale. March is when India’s wheat crop enters its final ripening stage and temperatures spiking above 35°C cause heat damage, lowering yields. Power planners project peak daytime demand at 275–285 GW this summer.
Cooling load alone adds 50–55 GW. Despite 65 GW of renewables added since 2024, a 10–12 GW supply gap persists during evening peaks. Rising global temperatures, reduced rainfall, weak weather systems, and urban heating effects are all contributing to the early surge in temperatures.
With the hottest months still ahead, preparation and awareness will be critical. Crop loss or lesser yields may be an area of concern which needs to be seriously examined. Water availability remains a big problem and if rainfall is not adequate, this may accentuate conditions in the agricultural sector.
India needs to check pollution more seriously as its flagship, National Clean Air Programme, continues to be limited in its scope, as it covers only a fraction of polluted cities and over 60% of funds are reportedly directed toward dust reduction.
Structural im pediments – vehicular emissions, industrial output, coal dependence and agricultural burning – remain inadequately addressed. Thus, it is necessary that pollution control must be regionally coordinated and ur ban planning must integrate air quality considerations to reduce heat conditions, at least in cities and urban areas.
Governments, communities, and individuals must take proactive steps to protect health, manage water resources, and adapt to increasingly extreme summer conditions. As climate patterns continue to change, early heatwaves may become more common, making long-term climate adaptation and sustainable urban planning increasingly important for India’s future. But unfortunately, in the urban sector or even in the rural areas, green cover is steadily withering and this needs to be checked.
India must draw up an effective plan to counter extreme heat as well as manage situations where rainfall is scant,
