EDITORIAL
With a Spring Offensive by militants pouring cold water on Mohd Ashraf Ghani’s dreams and putting his government on tenterhooks, there is little wonder that Afghanistan’s president seems changing his tune vis-à-vis Pakistan. As trouble is mounting from multiple fronts for the national unity government that he heads, Ghani finds himself being virtually caught between the devil and the deep sea. So much so, the survival of his less than a year-old government is seriously at stake, as his own efforts to effect a major change in his country’s foreign policy — tweaking it in favour of long-time rival Pakistan — are likely to come to naught.
One might read much into Ghani’s surprise about-turn vis-à-vis Pakistan, in a speech read out at a Doha peace conclave, in which he castigated the troublesome neighbour for “waging an undeclared war against Afghanistan for the past 14 years.” The US-educated anthropologist and World Bank official-turned politician, who went out of his way to court Pakistan ever since he was elected in September last to head the new government, has used harsh words against the ‘scheming’ neighbour for the first time. That too, at an international conference on restoration of peace in his country, attended also by Western delegates. The military and intelligence alliances that his government has cobbled with Pakistan in recent weeks have, on the one hand, vertically split the establishment. On the other, such actions drew strong protests from the likes of former president Hamid Karzai and several high-ranking officials, and exposed the chinks in Ghani’s armour.
It is no small matter that Ghani’s government itself has stated in a letter addressed to the Pakistani leadership a couple of days ago that “the public is asking whether there has been any return for Ghani’s efforts to secure enduring peace and cooperation with Pakistan.” Indication enough, the honeymoon is ending in a sooner-than- expected timeframe.
The president cannot be blamed if, out of his urge for restoration of peace in Afghanistan, he chose to befriend the main source of all his nation’s troubles. As is clear to all, and as former military dictator Pervez Musharraf has openly admitted recently, Pakistan played a role from behind in the ongoing mayhem unleashed by Taliban and the more dreaded Haqqani network in Afghanistan. It did so with multiple aims including to “teach a lesson” to Karzai who preferred India over Pakistan in his foreign policy initiatives. The Karzai era is over, for now, but Pakistan having tasted blood is still keen on extracting its pound of flesh from the landlocked nation. Not just. It is also using the newfound bonhomie with Ghani to penetrate Afghanistan’s intelligence and military establishment, through wily moves like the signing of the recent agreements, to take on India.
Ghani, who chose to ignore long-time regional ally India and even showed the boldness to scrap an arms deal with it, had been making every effort to please Pakistan and build bridges with it. That was evident not just in his decision to choose Pakistan as one of the first countries for his visit, scrapping a diplomatic convention wherein Afghan leaders’ first port of call was New Delhi. He came in here at leisure, after he visited several other countries including China, Saudi Arabia and the US too, and he took every care to make sure his guarded comments in New Delhi would not irritate Pakistan in any way. None of which, however, helped his country return to peace, if that was his ultimate aim.
It is perhaps too late for Ghani to realize that powerful sections within his own establishment are dead set against his pro-Pakistan push, as is also clear from the refusal of the intelligence chief to put in his signature to the recent agreement with Pakistan. The army is split, as well, over Ghani’s decision to send in troops to fight the anti-Pakistan Taliban in eastern Afghanistan. The spurt in violence, and the increasing sway of multiple players on the militancy front in Afghanistan – where IS is of late establishing a base as well – prove that Ghani’s plot for peace has fallen apart.
