New Delhi: COVID-19 updates, financial results and macro-economic data will continue to steer stock markets in this holiday-shortened week, say analysts.
Global trends are also expected to guide the market sentiment, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Thursday for ‘Id-Ul-Fitr’.
The week ahead has a trading holiday May 13. Markets in India have been choppy and volatile and trading in a broad zone for quite some time. While they did try to break downwards when they briefly traded around 47,250 levels on the BSESENSEX around the third week of April, they have bounced back smartly from there. The immediate resistance is the previous high made around 50,375 points a week later at the end of April. These levels look as important levels and either of them have to be breached and sustained for any meaningful move thereafter. Similar levels on NIFTY are 14,150 and 15,050 points. The strategy for the four-day week should be to continue to trade and sell on sharp rallies and buy on sharp dips. The importance of sharpness should not be ignored. Midcap and Smallcap stocks would continue to outperform the benchmark indices. Be cautious particularly in the metal pack.
“This week, the trend in the market will be dictated by developments in the COVID spread, upcoming result outcomes and global cues. Industrial production data for March and inflation data for the month of April are expected to be released this week,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
Financial results of Asian Paints, Jindal Steel & Power Limited, Lupin, Vedanta, Cipla and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories’ would remain in focus.
“Investors seem to have factored in the heightened daily COVID cases and are currently looking beyond the short-term impact. However, the risk of pandemic getting prolonged and national lockdown getting imposed lingers which is capping the market upside.
“Thus, going ahead, markets are likely to remain range-bound with bouts of volatility. Going ahead, the interplay of resurgence in COVID-19 cases and the pace of vaccination would decide the trajectory of economic recovery going forward,” Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd said.
Analysts said that Brent crude movement, trend in the rupee and investment pattern of foreign institutional investors would also be influencing market sentiments.
Foreign investors have been net sellers in the equity markets since April this year amid the raging second wave of coronavirus infection and its impact on the economy.
According to depositories data, FPIs pulled out Rs 9,659 crore on net basis from the equity markets in April while they withdrew Rs 5,936 crore in the first week of May.
The number of coronavirus cases crossed the grim milestone of 2 crore last week as India has been reporting record daily cases amid the second wave of COVID-19. Various states have imposed lockdowns to control the rise in the cases which could impact the economy.
“We feel improvement in the domestic COVID situation is critical for any sustainable up move else the rebound may again fizzle out in the following sessions,” said Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
Nirali Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities said, “This week is a short one but markets may still find it difficult to hold ground and can sway directionless within the range. A host of economic data from India industrial production numbers to inflation rate to manufacturing production figures are expected.”
During the last week, the 30-share BSE benchmark gained 424.11 points or 0.86 per cent.
PTI
