The Gulf is in turmoil, with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar. Egypt, Yemen, Libya and the Maldives have also joined the boycott. The oil-rich nations have taken on Qatar for what they have termed as its support for terrorism.
Qatar had recently ruffled some feathers in the region and that of the US after the website of a state-run news agency there carried what that country later claimed were ‘fake remarks’ on sensitive regional issues and critical of US foreign policy. The comments, Qatar said, were also wrongly attributed to its Emir and it claimed the website had been hacked. The involvement of the US in a sustained campaign against Qatar and Kuwait was also suspected.
A muddle in the Gulf bodes ill for the global economy. The immediate fallout of the rift was a global rise in oil prices. But it went on to dip over speculation that the issue could affect output cuts. One cannot deny the fact that the oil glut in the market created by the increase in production by Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) had brought prices of oil down steeply and helped nations around the world dependent on fossil fuels to power their growth to recover from recession.
Countries such as India have benefited from the oil slump in the form of huge savings on import bills. Now with the US seemingly clear of the worst phase of recession as was indicated by the Fed rate hikes and Trump’s greater focus on America First, there is no saying what the new US foreign policy for the region will be focusing on. If oil prices rise, it is likely to help Russia, which would then be able to draw benefits from its own vast reserves of black gold.
Some mischief on the part of the US, in fanning the flames of Shia-Sunni conflict in the region, cannot be ruled out in the current situation. Iran continues to be the target, feared as it is for its nuclear ambitions, among other things.
From another perspective, disunity in the Gulf, too, promises its own benefits as it would then help break the near monopoly of the Gulf nations on the oil market. But profits and losses aside, the bigger concern for the region should be the growth of terror.
Irrespective of who spawns or protects organisations that spread terror, the one constant is that these outfits are votaries of violence and pose grave threat to humanity. If Qatar is indeed promoting or protecting terror, it needs to understand that it is unleashing a negative force that could boomerang.
In the present scenario, nations need to look above mutual differences at the greater threat of climate change that is looming large over everyone. With Trump having declared his decision to pull out of Paris climate pact, there is every possibility that he could give a stronger push to industry in the US and therefore create greater demand for oil. In sum, the given crisis has the trappings of manipulation and must be resisted.
