Hong Kong: China’s exports returned to growth in November after an unexpected contraction in October, pushing its trade surplus in dollar terms for 2025 past the $1 trillion mark for the first time, according to data released Monday.
Exports climbed 5.9% from a year earlier in November while imports rose just under 2%.
The customs data released Monday also showed that shipments to the U.S. dropped nearly 29% year-on-year. But as trade with the US weakens, China is diversifying its export markets throughout Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America.
China’s exports had contracted just over 1% in October. November’s worldwide exports of $330.3 billion exceeded economists’ estimates. Imports totalled $218.6 billion for the month.
The nearly $1.08 trillion trade surplus for the first 11 months of this year is a record high, surpassing the $992 billion surplus for all of 2024, based on official data compiled by FactSet.
While exports from China to the US have fallen for most of the year, shipments have surged to other destinations, including Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and the European Union.
A year-long trade truce between China and the US was reached at a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October in South Korea. The US has lowered its tariffs on China, and China has promised to halt its export controls related to rare earths.
“It’s likely that November exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff cut, which should feed through in the coming months,” ING Bank chief economist for Greater China Lynn Song wrote in a report.
China’s factory activity contracted for an eighth straight month in November, according to an official survey, and economists said it was still early to determine whether there was a real rebound in external demand following the US-China trade truce.
With exports still going strong, economists generally expect China to meet its target of around 5% annual growth for this year.
Chinese leaders outlined a focus on advanced manufacturing for the next five years following a high-level meeting in October.
An annual meeting was held Monday, led by Xi, to map out plans for 2026, according to the Xinhua state news agency. It said Chinese leaders reiterated a focus on “pursuing progress while ensuring stability”.
The recent stabilisation of trade relations with Washington is unlikely to last long, said Chi Lo, Global Market Strategist, BNP Paribas Asset Management, as China-U.S. relations “remain in a stalemate” despite their temporary trade truce.
Still, some economists believe that China will continue to gain export market share in the coming years.
Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2030, China’s market share in global exports will reach 16.5%, up from about 15% currently, fueled by its edge in advanced manufacturing and high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics and batteries.
“Despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20 economies taking up active industrial policies, we believe China will gain more share in the global goods export market,” Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya said in a recent note.
