Cairo: The US military vowed to blockade all Iranian ports starting Monday in an effort to force Tehran to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz and accept a peace deal. Iran responded with threats on all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, taking aim at US-allied countries.
That set the stage for an extraordinary showdown that posed serious risks for the global economy and raised the specter that the ceasefire could collapse and the war could resume. Talks aimed at permanently ending the conflict, which began Feb. 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran – failed to reach an agreement this past weekend, and there has been no word on whether negotiations will resume.
It was not clear if the blockade had started when the designated time of 10 a.m. EDT (2 p.m. GMT) arrived. Minutes earlier, a notice to mariners issued by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency, which monitors maritime security, said the restrictions included “the entirety of the Iranian coastline, including ports and energy infrastructure.”
The notice added that transit through the strait “to or from non-Iranian destinations is not reported to be impeded by these measures,” but it added that ships “may encounter military presence” in the strait.
Iran’s effective closure of the strait, through which 20% of traded oil passes in peacetime, has sent oil prices skyrocketing, pushing up the cost of gasoline, food and other basic goods far beyond the Middle East. Tehran has allowed some ships perceived as friendly to pass while charging considerable fees, leading to accusations it is holding the global economy hostage.
Some analysts are doubtful that the US can restore normal shipping through force alone – and it’s not clear how a blockade would work or what the dangers might be to US forces.
The question is essentially who can endure the most pain: Could a blockade make Iran’s economic situation untenable and force it to concede? Or will it drive global oil and other prices so high that US President Donald Trump is forced to back down?
Blockade could have far-reaching effects
The US military’s Central Command announced that the blockade would be enforced “against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas.” It said that would include all of Iran’s ports on the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
CENTCOM’s decision to allow ships traveling between non-Iranian ports to transit the strait was a step down from Trump’s earlier threat to blockade the waterway.
In a social media message posted shortly after the blockade was due to begin, Trump said Iran’s navy was “laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated,” but he added that Tehran still has “fast attack ships,” and warned that “if any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED.”
Iran issued threats of its own.
“Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE,” the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported Monday. “NO PORT in the region will be safe,” read a statement from the Iranian military and the Revolutionary Guard.
The threats halted the limited ship traffic that resumed in the strait since the ceasefire, according to a report from Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Marine trackers say over 40 commercial ships have crossed since the start of the ceasefire last week, down from roughly 100 to 135 vessel passages per day before the war.
The blockade is likely intended to pile pressure on Iran, which has exported millions of barrels of oil since the war began, much of it likely carried by so-called dark transits that evade Western sanctions and oversight.
But the effects will be felt far beyond Iran. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, rose 7% to hover around $102 per barrel Monday. It cost roughly $70 per barrel before the war.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that, together with French President Emmanuel Macron, he would hold a summit this week “to drive forward the international effort” to end the conflict and unblock the strait. Starmer told lawmakers it must reopen with no conditions or tolls.
Iran says if you fight, we will fight’
Top-ranking Iranian officials threatened retaliation.
Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, dismissed US warnings of a potential blockade as “more bluffing than reality,” while warning that Tehran was prepared to respond if the situation escalates militarily.
“It will make the current situation (Trump) more complicated and makes the market, which he is angry about – more turbulent. And we may also reveal other cards that we have not used in the game,” he said in a post on X.
The Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, addressed Trump in a statement: “If you fight, we will fight.”
Ceasefire holds after talks end without agreement
The blockade threat came after marathon US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement on Saturday.
US Vice President JD Vance said the talks stalled after Iran refused to accept American terms on refraining from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran has insisted its nuclear program is peaceful. However, it has pushed forward with steps that could give it the ability to build a nuclear weapon, including enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels and developing long-range missiles capable of delivering a bomb.
Iranian negotiators could not agree to all US “red lines,” said a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to describe positions on the record. Those red lines included never obtaining a nuclear weapon, ending uranium enrichment, dismantling major enrichment facilities and allowing retrieval of its highly enriched uranium, along with opening the strait and ending funding for its armed proxies in the region: Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Iran’s ambassador to India, Mohammad Fathali, said the main sticking points for Tehran were its nuclear program, war reparations and sanctions relief.
Neither Iran nor the US has indicated what will happen after the ceasefire expires April 22. The fighting has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, 2,089 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, and damaged infrastructure in half a dozen countries.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said his country will try to facilitate a new dialogue in the coming days.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, whose country has supported mediation efforts, suggested that the ceasefire could be extended for 45 to 60 days to allow for more negotiations.
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