The 26th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek saw PM Modi in the company of the Chinese and Russian Presidents where in a strong statement on destroying the terrorist ecosystem evidently aimed at Pakistan, he joined the aggregated chorus on terrorism. Not that it dents Pakistan’s image any bit. Having mediated the US-Israel conflict with Iran with the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed in June still the guiding document to end the war and the Mecca Trilateral Defence Agreement signed between Pakistan, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s profile in the region has considerably increased.
The Bishkek Summit spoke of the troika of challenges, “terrorism, separatism and extremism” while members highlighted the need for connectivity and development for the region. The Bishkek declaration condemned the US-Israel aggression against Iran, an SCO member, in the strongest terms and supported Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while calling for peace and security in the world in abidance with UN norms. With China’s call for a multi-polar world where every country, big or small, would have the freedom to pursue its own development, it was clear that the SCO has become a powerful anti-American grouping with a renewed focus on Central Asia and Eurasia where its claim for the Global South to rally around its Belt and Road, Global Security and Development Initiatives was broadly recognised, constructing space for India while increasing Pakistan’s profile with the latter going to chair the next year’s Summit. How would that meet with India’s adverse posture towards its western neighbour and how would that impact India’s relations with China would be an open question.
The SCO summit could well be the prelude to global re-balancing at the forthcoming BRICS summit in Delhi (Sept 12-13) where India will find its hands literally tied to the back. For example, in a bilateral on the sidelines of the SCO meeting Modi told Putin that there should be an end to the “endless war” with Ukraine while meeting the Iranian President for the first time after the war, the Indian PM had nothing much to offer except voicing platitudes and talking about increasing trade and investment (with the biggest Indian investment in Chahbahar of over $500 million already scuttled under US pressure). Which the US Secy of State was soon to veto saying that there was no talk of trade between India and Iran in the SCO meet. America knows best what India would say to whom, says how our foreign policy is best conducted.
The BRICS Summit with an avowed anti-US posture would see the Chair, India, take a backseat while members move for de-dollarisation (trading in national currencies, or cross-border payments) fostering better links between digital payments systems and central bank digital currencies. This has been discussed at the Jaipur meeting of BRICS (Aug 12-13) which the summit will carry forward. It is pertinent to state that India’s deal with Russia on its energy imports in national currencies keep running into hurdles reverting to dollar payments. In effect, clear systems and conditions need to evolve if payments are to be stabilised in national currencies.
The BRICS summit will furthermore see China and Russia drawing their global positions in consonance with international institutions, be it UN for territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Global South countries or WTO for rationalisation of global trade. All that will acquire an anti-American posturing which would make India’s position further uncomfortable. Having shed its neutrality by openly siding with USA and Israel in their war against Iran, India’s foreign policy is at a loose end. Modi’s recurrent vocalization of “dialogue and diplomacy” at each global forum has run out of steam, particularly when the Global South countries look up to India to play a more decisive role as peacemaker given its economic and demographic weight.
Meanwhile, after a short lull in fighting President Trump has resumed targeting southern Iran following the latter’s attacks on three oil tankers passing through the Strait. It is quite clear by now that Iran will never cede victory to Washington however much the latter arraigns forces and materiel against the Islamic Republic. Trump’s renewed attacks on Iran have coincided with his bid to rename the Strait of Hormuz as the “Trump Strait” after naming Lake America for Wisconsin in his ruckus with Canada. Preposterous as it seems with Iran still in actual control of the Strait in the face of the US naval blockade having worked out an agreement with Oman to manage the waters of the Strait jointly. Waxing offensive at Oman for having agreed to the deal with Iran, Trump’s efforts at renewing the war, besides depleting US munitions and causing serious damage to its economy, would severely affect Trump’s mid-term prospects and get the Democrats a better position in the Congress. Furthermore, what would be of import to India, the decline in Trump’s popularity would be directly proportional to China’s further rise in global geo-politics. It would be interesting to see in this context the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting in USA slated for end Sept.
In either scenario India does not have much leverage. With an unsettling domestic scenario, the RSS chief’s recent visits to USA, Canada and UK having seen strong protests by civil society and inter-faith groups against ‘Hindu nationalism” manifested in the hypocritical hyperbole of doublespeak (“Diversity is in India’s DNA, has to be recognized, respected and protected, any Hindu who tells a Muslim to go back is not a true Hindu”) and increasing demands of the Gen Z emboldened by their success of calling truth to power on their substantive demands could further diminish India’s global image with visuals of govt apathy to activities of the young Hindu nationalist brigade crowding social media space.
India has a great opportunity ahead to burnish its credentials as a real democracy provided it takes strong positions within the country and does not stand party to further communalise the atmosphere while scandals of E20, GDP growth and rampant price rise have hit headlines. It would be a challenge to surmount the credibility crisis which Delhi is getting increasingly mired with.
The writer is a former diplomat and a current educator and author.
