After almost eight years of calm, Aleppo, one of the world’s oldest continually inhabited cities and considered one of the cradles of civilization, saw a return of violence on 30 November. In an unexpected offensive that seems to have significantly altered the power dynamics in Syria, Islamist insurgents have captured territory throughout the northwestern region and have swept into Aleppo, bringing the bloody civil war back into spotlight. The militants took control of the ancient city with surprising ease as they encountered minimal resistance from the government forces, a stark contrast to the intense street battles that raged for every block 12 years ago. Aleppo has a history that dates back to the third millennium BC, while archaeological evidence establishes that the region was the first to start cereal cultivation in the world. Militants from the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rapidly took control of much of the city in a surprising defeat of the Syrian army. Video footage captured the moment when the rebels pulled down a statue of Bassel al-Assad, the brother of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, accompanied by celebratory gunfire. The HTS-led forces also captured a significant military base to the south and gained control of Saraqib, a crucial point along the highway to the capital, Damascus. This unexpected insurgent success in Aleppo posed an unforeseen challenge to President Assad, who had long been perceived as having quelled the uprising against him. Assad’s previously stable grip on Syria seemed secure enough that former regional adversaries, particularly Saudi Arabia, had started to re-establish diplomatic ties with Damascus. Since the ceasefire agreement in 2020, the conflict had mostly died down, characterised by minor skirmishes between the rebels and Assad’s regime.
However, the stunning reversal of circumstances presents the most significant challenge to Assad’s regime in eight years. Assad had re-established control over Aleppo in 2016 after driving out the insurgents and thousands of civilians from its eastern districts, following a protracted military campaign supported by Russia, Iran, and their allied groups. Since that time, Aleppo has not faced attacks from the opposition forces. The 2016 conflict for Aleppo had marked a crucial moment in the civil war, which erupted after protests against Assad’s regime in 2011 escalated into a full-scale conflict. The latest events are also significant as they unfold at a time when Assad’s allies—Iran and its affiliated groups, as well as Russia—are preoccupied with their own conflicts. Russia is engaged in a war with Ukraine for more than one thousand days. Likewise, Iran-backed Hezbollah, which has supported the Syrian government forces since 2015, was fighting against Israel for the last two months. Hezbollah and Israel entered into a ceasefire just last week. During those two months, Israel has also intensified its strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian-linked targets in Syria.
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Meanwhile, the Syrian military Sunday deployed reinforcements to prevent insurgents from advancing further following their capture of Aleppo and other key strategic areas, while Russian airstrikes hit the country’s north-western parts targeting rebel camps. The resurgence of the conflict in Syria, which has already resulted in over 300,000 deaths and displaced nearly six million civilians from the country since 2011, has significant ramifications for the region. There appears to be no let-up to the cycle of violence in the Middle East.
