I want Iran to win. What does win mean? Iran defines it in the following way: The United States of America must lift its decades-old sanctions on Iran; it must dismantle its military bases in the Arab states; Israel must end its occupation of Lebanon; and Iran must be compensated for the damage it has suffered over the years and in this war.
Though more than a thousand Iranians have already died in American and Israeli bombardment and more will die, if Iran is able to secure these things, it will be total victory.
Why do I want Iran to win? At the most basic level, it is the underdog in the fight against two nuclear-armed opponents, Israel and America. It is weaker than them militarily, yes, but it is not feeble, as the world has witnessed since February 28. It has more resolve than most other states. Another instinctive reason for me to support Iran is that it is, like we are, a nation that has been trampled on by what is called the West. I have solidarity with them also for this reason.
At a deeper level, the Jewish state of Israel and America are colonists imposing themselves brutally on a world which does not want them. They should be resisted, along with their actions. American sanctions on Iran isolate it from the global banking system, making trade with the world difficult and are designed not only to weaken the Iranian state but to keep Iranians poor. These are not United Nations sanctions, but unilaterally imposed by America, which uses its economic power to harass nations it doesn’t like, including, as we are also witnessing, Venezuela and Cuba.
Iran’s demand that they be removed is just. I want them to go and for that Iran must win.
America has military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, UAE, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Why does it have all those soldiers and weapons there? America runs an empire in all but name. The American military should not threaten the world and must focus on its homeland. Iran has begun that conversation.
Israel is today what South Africa was 40 years ago, but worse. It is an apartheid state (it controls millions of people who have no vote and no rights) which is guilty of genocide according to many human rights organisations, including the one I represent, and even organisations inside Israel itself. It has used its military might and its access to almost unlimited American arms and funding to terrorise the Middle East and this has to end. An Iranian win would do much to resolve this.
Iran has suffered damage of hundreds of billions of dollars over the years because of the sanctions on it and has been harmed more since the war was inflicted on it. Iran is entitled to damages and these have to be paid to it by the US and its allies.
These are the reasons I want Iran to win. Why I think it is possible and perhaps even likely that Iran will win? The answer is of course that it is in control of this war, despite appearances. America and Israel can inflict terrifying punishment on Iran and its population, and they have, murdering schoolgirls and attacking infrastructure. They have assassinated Iranian leaders and will likely murder more of them. But they have failed in regime change, which was the goal of this war. The Islamic Republic of Iran remains.
Iran’s response is focused and narrow: it will not allow oil, gas or any supplies to exit or enter the Middle East through the sea. Its control of the water is based as much on the violence it can inflict as it is on the threat of violence, which is really what has deterred commercial ships from attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s response is also calibrated and its own oil is free to flow. And it retains some capacity to attack American bases and the nations who host these bases, as we have seen. These two things are all it needs to prevail.
So long as US President Donald Trump cannot wrest control of the passage of ships out of and into the Persian Gulf, the price of crude oil and gas will rise as it has done since the war. Americans are paying more for petrol and diesel today and will pay even more as the war continues.
Unfortunately, the entire world is also hostage to this problem and will suffer, but so far, the world has not called on the original perpetrators, the real villains, America and Israel, to end their war. This is because they are afraid of them and that is also why I want Iran to win.
From here on, America needs to do something dramatic to change the status of the conflict which, as it stands, is in Iran’s favour. Assassinations and carpet bombing have not worked. One hopes that what America does is arrive at a compromise and end its violence and agree to at least two of the Iranian demands: guaranteeing no future violence and the permanent lifting of sanctions. From Israel, I have no expectations because it has shown over the years that what it wants is mindless and endless destruction.
I want Iran to win, and for that to happen, America does not have to lose. It only has to do the right thing.