From the very outset, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai was doomed to fail, largely due to its setup – hosted by a petrostate, presided by the CEO of that state’s biggest oil company and amid stiff opposition from the world’s most powerful oil cartel. Nevertheless, about 200 countries agreed to move away from fossil fuels while climate activists argued the deal had enough loopholes to sustain oil, gas, and coal industries despite the hazards they have brought to the planet. At the end of the summit, climate negotiators reached a consensus calling for ‘transitioning’ away from fossil fuels, the first such deal in the 28-year history of the UN climate conferences.
However, it didn’t call for a complete ‘phasing out’ of fossil fuels, something that climate activists the world over have wanted and more than 100 countries including small island states and European nations have pleaded for. The deal instead allowed enough room for countries for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade.” While COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber called the agreement a “historic package to accelerate climate action,” many experts exposed it as a “litany of loopholes.” The accord calls for tripling the use of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency.
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According to the statement, the transition would be implemented in a way that achieves net zero global emissions by 2050 and a peak in carbon pollution by 2025. At the same time it gives enough wiggle room to countries like China, one of the world’s major polluters, to peak later. According to experts, the final document’s inclusion of technology like carbon capture and sequestration — which prevent greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere — seemed to be an attempt to placate Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which had long advocated that emissions could be trimmed without targeting specific fuels. The agreement acknowledges the goal of limiting emissions to keep warming to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, though there is no mention of how that would be achieved. As matters stand, the world is not on pace to limit warming. Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record last year, according to the UN’s Emissions Gap Report 2023.
According to that report, the world is on its path to warm by as much as 2.9 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century — nearly double the international target set in the Paris Agreement. As shown in the provisional State of the Global Climate report by the World Meteorological Organization, 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record. Data until the end of October show that the year was about 1.4 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level. Amid all these scary reports, it was expected that the world’s climate negotiators would find concrete solutions to this existential crisis, but what we have got is only piecemeal and half measures. As former US Vice President and Nobel Prize winning climate activist Al Gore summed it up: “The decision at COP28 to finally recognize that the climate crisis is, at its heart, a fossil fuel crisis is an important milestone. But it is also the bare minimum we need and is long overdue. The influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes included in the final agreement.”
