By Bula Devi
Amid a volatile situation in Bangladesh, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman arrived in Japan on October 26 with his wife, Zubaida, and a small delegation for a four-day official visit aimed at boosting trade and investment. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s intelligence chief travelled to India to pursue backchannel discussions on former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s possible return.
Hasina is determined to return to Bangladesh in December, although there is no indication yet that her homecoming is imminent.
While the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led government publicly wants India to send back the former Prime Minister, unofficially, it is said that the Rahman government may prefer to keep her away. Her return could trigger political unrest, with public anger potentially directed not at Hasina but at Rahman’s government, while the opposition Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) continues to demand her extradition.
Bangladeshis are increasingly frustrated by shortages and soaring prices of essential commodities, high inflation and unemployment. Street-level conversations frequently compare Hasina’s Awami League government with the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus and the current BNP government.
Although Hasina became increasingly authoritarian and detached from ground realities, some citizens now perceive her governance as preferable to the failures of her successors. Yet this apparent nostalgia does not automatically translate into political support.
Analysts argue that any revival of the Awami League would require organisational rebuilding and effective mobilisation, along with the lifting of the ban on the party. Restoring democracy, they say, requires a level playing field.
Meanwhile, backchannel negotiations over Hasina’s return remain confined to intelligence agencies, with no breakthrough at the political level.
On October 25, Bangladesh’s National Security Intelligence Director General, Maj Gen Abu Mohammad Sarwar Farid, arrived in Delhi with another official. Although his itinerary was not disclosed, he was expected to meet National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and other officials on October 26. There is also speculation that he might have discussed the proposed Matabari deep-sea port project.
Since Rahman assumed office in February, intelligence contacts have continued. In March, Directorate General of Forces Intelligence chief Maj Gen Kaiser Rashid Choudhury visited India and met Research and Analysis Wing chief Parag Jain and Director General of Military Intelligence Lt Gen R.S. Raman.
During Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman’s visit to India in April, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reportedly conveyed New Delhi’s position: Hasina had come to India with the knowledge of the Bangladesh establishment and had not fled to India. New Delhi had provided her with shelter, and she could leave whenever she wished, provided Dhaka guaranteed her safety.
During RAW chief Jain’s August visit to Dhaka, sources said, he stressed that Hasina would require a secure, designated area, comprehensive protection and round-the-clock medical care rather than confinement in an ordinary prison cell. India also opposed any humiliating treatment, including handcuffing her upon arrival.
In September, NSA Doval reportedly visited Bangladesh, staying for roughly three-quarters of a day on September 17. Although details remain unavailable, discussions were believed to have included Hasina’s security and the reported growing presence of Pakistani jihadist elements in Bangladesh.
On October 7, India’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, travelled to Delhi and met Army Chief Gen Dhiraj Seth. He had earlier met Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the BRICS summit.
India is unlikely to favour formal extradition, sources suggest. Such proceedings would require scrutiny of the charges and assurances that Hasina would receive a fair trial — conditions that New Delhi may not consider satisfied. Moreover, extradition proceedings could drag on for years, despite JeI’s insistence on the process.
Hasina had reportedly sought to move to London, but the authorities there did not entertain her request. India eventually sheltered her following a request conveyed through a Bangladesh military channel to the Indian Army, with her security and bilateral relations weighing heavily in the decision.
For New Delhi, sources familiar with developments say, the larger objective is to secure the lifting of the ban on the Awami League and help restore democratic competition in Bangladesh. Whether the ongoing intelligence-level contacts can advance that goal remains uncertain.