It is not difficult to understand US President Donald Trump’s latest strategy of the US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It is clearly intended to cripple the main source of Iran’s economy and is essentially a posturing for greater leverage to force Iran to agree to a peace deal on US terms. Though Trump may not admit it, fact is he badly needs a way out of the war with Iran. This is for two reasons. His stocks for the coming mid-term polls in November are alarmingly dwindling for which he can ill afford to escalate the war that entails heavy risks for the US due to Iran’s defiance and success in damaging US’ vital interests in the Middle East with its incredible array of missiles and drones. Added to this, a new and unexpected development is Europe’s increasing assertion against the US. Iran appears keen to utilize this to its advantage. Its foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi had been briefing European nations on the nature of the offer Iran was willing to make about its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and future stewardship of the Strait of Hormuz during the weekend talks in Islamabad.
After the inconclusive talks, Araghchi briefed over phone his counterparts of France and Germany – Jean-Noël Barrot and Johann Wadephul – and the Saudi, Omani and Qatari foreign ministers as well. Europe has been sidelined by the US in its war with Iran as Trump teamed up with Israel in the fight. Iran too did not, at that point of time, set much store by the European governments, seeing them as sycophants of America. But signs of the deepening transatlantic split and the intense pressure being applied to European economies have led Iran to rework its relationship with Europe as a potential leverage on Trump.
European countries have started a fine balancing act not to defy Trump overtly and at the same time send messages loud and clear across Iran that they are averse to be dragged into any conflict with it. To make the pretense of having some respect for Trump’s demand that they provide military support for his war, they have focused on building a defensive non-belligerent naval alliance to ensure the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but only after the conflict ends.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a further joint conference with the UK to discuss the proposal with allies. Any scheme will require discussion with Tehran, including on its plan to impose tolls. Iranians are trying to quickly establish this mechanism at relatively low toll fees and to get as many countries as possible to agree to it. This will be a dangerous time for India. It will be forced to take a call whether to remain with the Israel-US alliance and allow fuel costs to overrun every last rupee of the budget. Alternatively, India may opt to switch sides and join the global bandwagon by siding with Iran and paying the toll at Hormuz in Chinese yuan. The signs of the time are such that even the pro-Trump Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is becoming circumspect about acceding to US plans in the Middle East following Trump’s verbal attack on Pope Leo XIV and the defeat of Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban – a Trump prototype. Leo XIV – the first American to become Pope – has vehemently condemned the US-Israeli war against Iran for the loss of human lives and global economic sufferings it has brought in its train. Iran has discovered a new weapon to keep the US at bay.
Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, it turns out, is more effective than acquiring a nuclear bomb. On top of it, it is watching with glee the widening split between Trump and Europe over the Middle East. A report suggests the Islamabad talks broke down because Iran proposed it would pause its nuclear programme for five years, while the USA demanded 20 years. Iran is also willing to show its good faith by diluting, not handing over to a third party, its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Ali Nikzad, deputy speaker of Iran’s parliament, said: “The Islamic republic was ready to prove its good faith, to dilute – not hand over – 450kg of enriched uranium.” Both Iran and the US have given clear indications about resumption of talks. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping, the Chinese Supremo, has finally broken silence and has indicated China supports safeguarding the sovereignty of the Middle East and Gulf states. What that means could be anyone’s guess.