The recent urban elections, however inconsequential, are a clear indication of impending stormy days ahead for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Orissa. Umerkote (Ward No.12) being the only place where the BJD could save its seat and face, the other two, namely Cuttack city (Ward No.21) and Buguda (Ward No.9) stand witness to a tiny collapse of this well established regional party.
It is easy for second and third line leaders of BJD to undermine the seriousness of these debacles and claim that after 17 years of continuous predominance, it is inevitable that a slip or two could happen. While this argument can definitely not be wished away, yet, the characteristics of these two defeats are something that may create curiosity in the minds of political observers.
Interestingly, while the Congress is completely leaderless in the state and its fortunes are fast dissipating across the sub-continent, the emergence of the Congress in the urban elections in Orissa clearly spell out a freaky future scenario. In spite of all the thunder and glory of the Bharatiya Janata Party being heaped on Orissa, these urban elections have clearly spelt that the national ruling party is in position number 3.
This could be an indication that the average conscious Oriya voter is unwilling to accept the BJP in any form and at any level. Simultaneously, the same average voter is probably getting dissatisfied with the activities and lifestyles of the second and third line leadership of the BJD.
It is possible that a false sense of invincibility has gradually but surely seeped into the BJD psyche. It is also possible that most BJD elected representatives have started considering that it is they themselves, and not Naveen Patnaik, who are completely responsible for their own victories. The excessive use of red beacons, misuse of government machinery and rampant low level corruption has probably upset the average Oriya.
It must be mentioned that most of the sops doled out by the BJD government have been aimed at the deprived rural dweller. All those sops have clearly bypassed the urban inhabitant. The possibility that urban voters may not be extremely happy with the BJD’s tenure cannot be ruled out.
Cuttack and Buguda may eventually turn out to be a good omen for the BJD. Taking these defeats as a warning, the party and its secondary leadership still has time for course correction. At the national level, the recent state elections have proven that the BJP, at best, is capable of replacing only the Congress, like in Assam.
Otherwise, that national party had to struggle to open its accounts in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and West Bengal where regional parties performed better than the last time. Not only that, in states like West Bengal, the BJP had to swallow its pride with a fall in its vote share. With this scenario, it is possible that complacence has crept into the BJD. Remaining alert may very well steer the party out of graver pitfalls.
