US President Donald Trump’s peace initiatives appear to be turning into a one-sided affair in which the aggressor is being allowed to dictate terms and the victims virtually coerced to accept them, swallowing their self-respect and pride without asking questions of justice or fairness. As a plan negotiated 19 November between emissaries of the American President and those of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin heavily favours Russia, it is tantamount to capitulation by Ukraine. For it includes territorial concessions to Moscow, reductions in the Ukrainian army and its armaments, a pledge not to join NATO and a ban on deploying NATO troops in Ukraine. Russia has failed to achieve its end even after nearly four years of fighting, and when Europe, with continual flip-flops by Trump, is firming its resolve to arm Ukraine in its fight against Russia, the US President seems to be pulling the rug from under the feet of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This is the fourth time since his first call with Putin shortly after returning to the White House that Trump has pushed for dialogue with the Kremlin leader behind the backs of Kyiv and its European allies. This is nothing short of betrayal that is reminiscent of the UK’s appeasement policy that whetted the appetite for land and market of Adolf Hitler, eventually leading to World War II. Each time, as the fiasco of the Anchorage summit on 15 August attended by Trump and Putin, the attempt collapsed due to the Russian President’s intransigence. This is because, unlike Zelenskyy, Putin has no intention to announce a ceasefire. Russian forces continue to advance on the frontlines, relentlessly bombing Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, causing heavy civilian casualties.
In this saga, Zelenskyy and European leaders were presented with a fait accompli, then mobilised to try to reverse the course of events. Now both find themselves caught off guard by yet another U-turn by Trump, whose administration had just sanctioned two major Russian oil companies. Ukraine and the European Union members were once again excluded from the drafting of the plan, which was led by Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the Kremlin’s emissary, Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund. One reason for this development could be the weakened position of the Ukrainian President, who is facing a corruption scandal in the energy sector that has already brought down two of his ministers and is going against his administration like never before.
Zelenskyy seems to be so helpless that he said he was ready to discuss the project with Trump. The White House stated that it was “a good plan for both Russia and Ukraine.” Its implementation would be overseen by a “Board of Peace” chaired by the American President, following the Gaza model. The Ukrainian President has been on the defensive since his tense meeting with Trump in the Oval Office in February. However, he showed courage to rush to European capitals and rally them behind his country. This time, he would need his continental partners more than ever to counter the new diplomatic offensive. Europeans need to continue to reject the prospect of a plan imposed on Ukraine. The French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot has warned that such a capitulation would affect Europe no less, given how its security interests are now closely tied to those of Ukraine in the face of Putin’s Russia.
Trump seems to be aware of the backlash his plan would trigger in Europe, which is why he said 22 November that his “peace plan” was “not my final offer.” Ukrainian and American officials are meeting in Switzerland for talks to discuss the plan. Security officials from France, Britain and Germany are expected to join them in Geneva. Trump has given Zelenskyy a deadline to sign the 28-point document.
The question is whether Ukraine and its European allies will accede to Trump’s peace plan the way Palestinians had to do in Gaza. If that happens, establishing peace will acquire a new connotation in present day geopolitics in which the mighty will have the last laugh after wreaking havoc on the weak.