With three nuclear-armed rivals being on the prowl, regional peace is likely to be a casualty in South Asia in the years ahead. With an atmosphere of mistrust enveloping the subcontinent and beyond, all sides are into playing multiple games not only to strengthen their defences but also to put their rivals on the defensive.
China, with its strong economic clout supplemented by an equally strong military might, is virtually on a roll. The latest trick up its sleeve is apparently being played on Bangladesh with an offer of billions in loans, upstaging India and its relatively moderate support to Dhaka, opening a new front for the Red Dragon’s regional games. This is time for India to raise its guard further up.
When Chinese president Xi Jinping landed in Dhaka Friday, a set of nearly 30 agreements were ready for signing by way of mutual cooperation, infra projects and bilateral trade. This is for a nation with which China maintained only marginal associations, reflected also by the fact that this is the first time a Chinese leader is visiting Bangladesh in 30 years.
The loan it is planning to advance to Dhaka is reportedly in the range of $24 billion, multiples of what India gave Bangladesh in the past. Chances are also that China aims to break Bangladesh from the Indian influence at the behest of its all-weather friend Pakistan.
There is no love lost between Bangladesh and Pakistan as of now. The export of terror from Pakistan to Bangladesh has created a new set of problems for the Sheikh Hasina government. China, with its economic clout, can be counted on to neutralise the situation for mutual benefit.
It is noteworthy that the Chinese wooing of Bangladesh comes at a time when the air is thick with talks of a diplomatic push by Pakistan to create a new regional bloc with help from China, as a counter to SAARC that is in the doldrums of late after the aborted Islamabad summit.
China and Pakistan are reported to be trying to draw in Iran, countries in the Middle East where China has strong economic clout, and possibly those like Sri Lanka and the Maldives, potentially upsetting the Indian applecart. Two other regional players, Afghanistan and Nepal, have had brief rendezvous with Pakistan and China respectively in recent times despite the strong ties Kabul and Kathmandu maintained with New Delhi earlier.
As it looks now, Afghanistan and Nepal might not be drawn into an alternative bloc that Pakistan and China are contemplating; but in the long run, the scenario can be unpredictable.
China’s cash chests could be an attraction to these nations as well. After all, strengthening the economy is the first priority of any nation. With China’s superior military strengths, that should be an added glue too, if a regional realignment is attempted at in the future.
Likely, India could get isolated even at the regional level unless it plays its cards well.
India’s perceived strongpoint today is the new rise in level of friendship with the US — which is seen by Pakistan as a “declining power”. This US love has also distanced India from its long lost ally Russia, seen as a nation growing in economic and military strength in recent years, inching closer to its earlier powerful status.
This is set against China being the “superpower of the future”, as a Pakistani diplomat stated in Washington a week ago. Pakistan does not seem to be losing out on any front, as American financial backing to the country has seen only minor fluctuations in recent years, despite Pakistan providing cover to Osama bin Laden and its unwillingness to rein in terror outfits on its soil.
It looks like an irony that a nation that received hefty sums from the US year after year to fight terror is doing its best to strengthen terror networks in its fight against India and others. A change of guard in Washington by the year end might not make a difference to the situation. All of these go to show regional stability and peace will be a far cry in the years ahead.
