The end of Pax Americana is clearly in sight. While this has long been the goal of many leftists battling “American imperialism,” it is not really all that strange that a US government of right-wing zealots ultimately took a wrecking ball to the world order. America’s far right was always more isolationist than its liberal establishment. The question is how America’s main allies in Europe and East Asia, dependent on the United States for their security, will react. European leaders have hastily convened meetings where many brave words were spoken. Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, wrote on X that the “free world needs a new leader,” and that “it’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke of a “once-in-a-generation moment,” and promised to work with France, the only other European country with nuclear weapons, to help reach a just ceasefire for Ukraine. Most remarkable of all was the statement by Friedrich Merz, Germany’s presumptive chancellor and formerly a staunch Atlanticist, that Europe needed “to achieve independence from the US.” The best we can hope for is that US President Donald Trump’s betrayal of America’s traditional allies, humiliation of Ukraine, encouragement of right-wing extremism, and embrace of belligerent autocrats will push European and East Asian democracies to form new defense alliances. The need for a new order is indisputable. But so, too, are the hurdles.
The EU is not a military power, and it is doubtful that a “coalition of the willing” led by the United Kingdom and France can make up for the withdrawal of US security guarantees. Even if European countries fi nd a way to build a military alliance capable of replacing the US-led NATO, doing so will take years. And this won’t succeed without the leadership of Germany, the bloc’s largest economy. In 2011, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski told a German audience in Berlin that he feared “German power less than German inaction.” Many Europeans in countries that once suffered a brutal Nazi occupation would probably agree with that sentiment. But it might not be shared by enough Germans, who are still nervous about reviving a military disposition that ruined much of Europe – including Germany itself – not so long ago. Others in the country have embraced a pro-Russia stance. In Germany’s recent federal election, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, which is sympathetic to Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and opposed to supporting Ukraine, finished second. In East and Southeast Asia, the situation is even more fraught. Unlike Britain and France, none of America’s Asian allies has nuclear weapons. And there is no equivalent of NATO to protect against China’s increasing dominance. America’s richest ally, Japan, is utterly dependent on US security guarantees, as is South Korea, which is under constant threat from the nuclear-armed dictatorship in North Korea. America’s backing is also crucial for Southeast Asian countries seeking to shield themselves from Chinese aggression. And then there is Taiwan, which has no formal security pact with the US at all. If Trump is prepared to sacrifice Ukraine to make a deal with Putin, he might be just as inclined to barter away Taiwan’s democracy to do business with Chinese President Xi Jinping. If Pax Americana were to end in East and Southeast Asia, the only way to stop China from turning its neighbors into vassals would be to create an Asian NATO. This would include democracies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, but also some semi-democracies (Singapore and Thailand) and perhaps even some autocracies (Vietnam). But this organisation would encounter a problem similar to the one facing a European alliance. Japan is the only country powerful enough to lead such a disparate coalition. But many in Asia are wary of giving such a large role to a country long governed by a conservative party whose leaders have been reluctant to acknowledge their forebears’ horrific actions in World War II.
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And most Japanese – like many Germans – are not quite ready to trust themselves. Pax Americana in Asia and Europe had to end at some point. An arrangement whereby many wealthy countries depend wholly on one superpower for their security was never a healthy long-term arrangement. But the timing and manner of its demise could not be worse.
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Just as European and Asian democracies must confront a hostile coalition of autocracies – Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea – their protector threatens to withdraw its backing, leaving little time to rebuild a solid defense. What might happen instead, despite all the fine sentiments, is that America’s forsaken allies will panic and run for cover, pleading for protection from one the great powers. The South Koreans and Southeast Asians might look to China. The British could lean into their “special relationship” with the US, whereas the Germans – and perhaps even the French, if Marine Le Pen wins the next presidential election – might appeal to Russia. And Japan, left high and dry, could overcome its post-Hiroshima allergy to nuclear armament.
None of this is a given. Perhaps the Europeans will get their act together. Perhaps Trump’s bark is worse than his bite. Perhaps the Americans won’t withdraw from Asia. But no one should count on any of this happening. The major democracies in Europe and Asia are now the only bulwark against authoritarianism. And the onus of defending political freedom will be placed largely on the two countries, Germany and Japan, that once did so much to destroy them.
