By DK Giri
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India is being closely watched by world leaders on two counts. Russia is engaged in a heavy war in Ukraine since 2022. While the latest peace talks are being carried out as Putin has just threatened Ukraine, “roll back or be ready to be wiped out.” At the same time, serious efforts are being made at the behest of America to end the war.
An op-ed in a leading Indian newspaper titled, “World wants the Ukraine war to end, but Russia does not seem serious about peace,” written by Philipp Ackermann, Thierry Mathou and Lindy Cameron, the Ambassadors of Germany and France respectively, and Cameron, the British High Commissioner in Delhi accused Russia of an unprovoked war on Ukraine, raised the violation of fundamental international principles of national sovereignty and territorial integrity. They hinted that Russian appetite for territorial expansion and global destabilisation goes beyond Ukraine.
The article ends by reaffirming their countries’ unwavering commitment to support Ukraine both with military and non-military means. The MEA has issued a mild reaction suggesting that such articles, just on the eve of visit of foreign dignitary to India, are “unusual and unacceptable diplomatic practice.”
America has been highly critical of India’s buying of Russian oil. US President Donald Trump had imposed additional 25% tariffs on Indian exports to USA. In the meantime, Indian purchase of Russian crude oil has dipped since last August. It was 17% less by September and could fall to a record low in December.
Let us scan what is on Putin’s mind during his two-day visit to India, 4-5 December; what does he seek to achieve? How does India navigate its foreign policy while deepening ties with Russia? Some analysts anticipate strengthened ties and closer collaboration, while quite a few others including myself are sceptical of Russia’s intentions of meeting potential benefits, and are questioning the current partnership.
To read between the lines of two statements, one by Dimitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, and another by Putin himself, Peskov said, “We are looking forward to ensuring our rights to sell to those who want to purchase oil and their rights to buy our oil.” He added that Russia is willing to address India’s concern over the ballooning trade deficit.
Putin said, “main part of the plan on India visit is to elevate cooperation with India and China to qualitative new levels.” He added that he would discuss “expanding Indian imports to Russia.”
What raises the hackles of analysts and strategists is Putin hyphenating India and China. Since early this year because of Trump’s tantrums, New Delhi seems to be moving closer to Russia and China. One would have thought the bonhomie with the latter (China) is symbolic and for optics. But Putin’s statement indicates a possible troika (India-China-Russia). That is risky and a serious shift in India’s foreign policy since the first NDA government under AB Vajpayee and even 10 years of Manmohan Singh which marked a steady growth in India-America bilateralism. The jury is still out whether PM Narendra Modi can balance the two rival blocs. I tend to believe that it will be a hard and tortuous path to tread upon. New Delhi will have to eventually choose either one.
On bilateral issues, Putin will be co-chairing with Modi the 23rd India-Russian annual bilateral Summit. Talks will include renewed cooperation in trade, defence, energy, political, economic, scientific and people-to-people ties. New Delhi is likely to ask for the safe return of Indian nationals recruited in Russian military.
Another significant deal would be the signing of an agreement in order to enable India’s skilled and semiskilled professionals to work in Russia which is desperately short of manpower in various sectors. Formal negotiations on such an agreement started with signing of the TOR in August 2025.
Another important item on the agenda would be a Free Trade Agreement with Euro-Asian Economic Union (EAEU), comprising Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. A bilateral trade under the FTA is aimed at $100 billion by 2030. Currently, India has a large deficit with EAEU mainly due to heavy Indian imports of Russian oil.
The discussion on Ukrainian war will be what the world is pontificating on. Whether Ukraine will figure in the public joint communiqué made by the two leaders, is a question. If it does, it will have significant implications for India. If it does not, then also India would be subject to criticism by Western powers.
Let us watch and wait.
The writer is Professor of Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions.