The global economic order is being rewritten. Wars in Europe and West Asia, US–China rivalry, the return of tariffs, and the erosion of multilateral institutions have turned trade into an arena of power rather than rules. Trade is now about security, resilience, and influence as much as growth. For India, this presents both a strategic challenge and an opportunity. Until a decade ago, global trade was anchored in gradual liberalisation under the WTO, with major economies tolerating asymmetries in the name of development. That consensus has collapsed. Protectionism and economic nationalism are back, and globalisation is now viewed with growing scepticism.
Would BRICS be a choice? It is thawed for now with US super-ac tivism. Venezuela was struck for trying to get closer to BRICS as well as trading its oil in yuan and rubies. And India conveniently put off the military drill by the BRICS partners off the South African coast. Amid this, India’s 7.4% growth is an achievement over not-so-high growth during the period in the previous year. The country needs 8 per cent growth continuously. It also has to reduce its tax rates and work for faster growth. Rail fares were raised twice in a year. Taxes on several products increased to generate additional revenue for reducing the deficit.
India’s external trade profile has changed quietly but decisively. While trade still forms a modest share of GDP, its composition has shifted sharply toward higher value. India is no longer a low-end exporter: services such as IT, finance, design, and R&D are globally competitive, and goods exports now include pharma, engineering products, chemicals, and electronics components. The US and EU dominate India’s export markets, reflecting deep integration with advanced economies.
India long used the multilateral system to protect policy space, claiming special treatment under GATT and the WTO while resisting deeper commitments. The strategy worked when multilateralism was functional. With the WTO stalled, trade has shifted to reciprocal bilateral and regional deals—an arena where India remains hesitant, with few FTAs and difficulty securing favourable terms.
The re-politicisation of trade has been most visibly symbolised by Trump-era tariffs, which shattered the assumption that advanced economies would indefinitely tolerate trade imbalances.
At the extreme end lies Venezuela, a cautionary tale of how sanctions, trade isolation, and overdependence on a narrow export base can devastate an economy. Venezuela’s experience shows that trade and finance can be weaponised to the point of economic paralysis. For India, the lesson is clear: diversification of trade partners, payment systems, and supply chains is no longer op tional—it is strategic insurance.
It is in this context that BRICS has gained renewed relevance. For India, BRICS offers possibilities. It can help diversify trade, secure energy and commodities, and provide diplomatic leverage. But BRICS is not a substitute for global integration. China’s overwhelming economic weight, limited intra-BRICS trade complementarities, and divergent political systems constrain its potential. India cannot replace access to the US and European markets with BRICS alone. Therefore, BRICS is a balancing instrument, not a destination.
Against this backdrop, India faces three strategic choices: Trade Zero, Diet Trade, and Trade Regular. Trade Zero prioritises the domestic market, using trade mainly to manage surpluses while shielding producers. It limits its political risk but offers weak growth and risks marginalising India in a world demanding reciprocity. Diet Trade is a middle path, deepening trade with trusted partners in high-value goods and services while protecting sensitive sectors. It may deliver incremental gains but falls short of India’s ambitions. Trade Regular is the most ambitious option, positioning India as a hub linking major economies through deeper integration, upgraded agreements, and domestic reforms. It demands higher standards and reciprocity but offers the greatest rewards in markets, technology, capital, and influence.
In a world where tariffs punish complacency, sanctions isolate the unprepared, and blocs like BRICS offer partial shelter, India must move from hesitation to strategy. Trade is no longer ideology. It is power—and India must learn to wield it deliberately.
