Tunnelling through a fragile future

Shivaji Sarkar

The Nepal floods are a grim warning for not only India, but the entire region. Afghanistan to Tibet, the Himalayan region is one territory – continuous and contiguous geographical unit – that has to share happiness and more than that turmoil together. Each Himalayan tragedy only signals the next one. Business as usual is no longer defensible. The 26 August Nepal-Tibet flash floods were caused not by a conventional GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood), but by a massive high-altitude glacier collapse and ice-rock avalanche. A large glacier section collapsed in Tibet, temporarily damming the river. When the debris dam breached, a huge torrent of water, mud and rock swept into Nepal, killing hundreds and destroying roads, bridges and hydropower projects. Satellite analysis suggests about two-thirds of the glacier body collapsed, with no clear evidence of a pre-existing glacial lake bursting. The warning is stark: Himalayan glaciers themselves—not just glacial lakes—are becoming potential triggers of catastrophic floods. The Little Ice Age is at its end. Europe is simmering, rivers and lakes drying up. Himalayas are melting.

Research studies note 40% of the Nepal glacial ice cover is gone. The region from Hindukush Silk Route to the Eastern and northern-most Himalayas are being deforested and rat-holed with giant tunnel boring machines for dams, river diversions, bridges and series of projects for rails and roads now even in the most sensitive and fragile Badarinath-Kedarnath for “strategic” toll roads. Detonations for projects in western, northern or southern Himalayas can lead to mini-tremors and other seismic activities leading to gradual devastation across the region. India has constructed and is building major strategic and transportation tunnels across the Himalayan region from Jammu & Kashmir to Uttarakhand, drastically improving connectivity, defence logistics and earning massive tolls for profits. The Himalayan “wiping out” would turn the entire northern Indian plains into a massive desert. Interestingly, it would have aggravated the situation in Europe already hit by severe heat-drought cycles. The subcontinent is becoming the architect of a Euro-Asian disaster that may be altering the characteristics of the Arctic and Antarctica.

Uttarakhand saw two deadly glacier-related disasters within three months in 2021. A February glacial-lake breach killed at least 61 people, left 143 missing and damaged two hydropower projects; a second glacier collapse in April killed 12. ICIMOD has identified 47 potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Koshi, Gandaki and Karnali basins. With Himalayan glaciers reportedly melting at twice the early-2000s rate, the risks are rising, while South Asia’s glacial-flood early-warning systems and regional cooperation remain woefully limited. Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh are rapidly expanding large tunnel networks through fragile Himalayan terrain. Himalayan disasters demand basin-wide, cross-border gover nance. SAARC must move beyond a political forum and revive regional disaster mechanisms, real-time data sharing and joint rescue protocols. India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh should integrate satellite and ground monitoring of glaciers, landslides and glacial lakes with automated downstream warnings. Shared river-basin assessments, strict floodplain zoning and common climate-resilient construction standards should replace isolated project clearances. The Himalayas need a ridge-to-valley, transboundary strategy in which early warning, ecological protection and disaster response work as one system. A joint SAARC action may turn the future of Asia and the world. India has the highest stake. It has to save the world with vigorous dialogue in the neighbourhood to save the Himalayas and the Indian subcontinent, as a precursor to rescuing the world.