During the past fortnight, European states have reported a spurt in incursions into their airspace, the latest such instance being drones appearing above Danish airports 25 September. This came close on the heels of drones over Poland, Romania, Estonia and a German naval frigate in the Baltic Sea. The suspected culprit is, of course, Russia, though the latter has stoutly denied its hand in them. But the overall pattern does fit into Moscow’s long record of provocations and escalation of conflicts.
All these, however, indicate Russia is testing whether Europe is in a position to defend Ukraine in the face of its renewed attacks. Since the drones in Danish skies were seen soon after US President Donald Trump’s assertion at the UN session 23 September that Ukraine could win back its lost territory, the suspicion gets strengthened. Trump even suggested NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft entering their airspace. That is easier said than done. What is important is that Trump has made a complete U-turn on his assessment of Ukraine’s ability to take on Russia. After snubbing and virtually threatening Ukraine to surrender to Russia’s aggression and annexation of its territories, Trump, for the first time, said at the UN session that Ukraine could, in fact, win back the one-fifth of its territory it has lost to Russia since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, the Kremlin’s support to separatists and its 2022 full-scale invasion. The question, however, is whether one should have faith in the judgment of a man who fails to distinguish between aggressor and victim.
Earlier this year, Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin had “all the cards” and urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to make peace in terms that meant abject surrender to the aggressor. Trump has already established his credentials as a vacillating ruler. To justify his apparent change of heart, Trump even asserted that the new assessment follows a process he described as “getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia military and economic situation.” He has offered to continue supplying American weapons for NATO “to do what they want with them.” Speculation is rife as to what has prompted President Trump to show the sudden enthusiasm for Ukrainian liberation and denunciation of Moscow’s military provocations. It would be worthwhile to note the shift in his attitude to Ukraine in varying degrees according to Putin’s warmth or coldness to him.
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With constant encouragement and cajoling from European leaders, Trump’s attitude to Zelenskyy has seemingly changed from contempt to courtesy tinged with a modicum of respect. There are reasons to believe that Trump has adopted the anti-Russian posturing because Putin has taken him for a ride, joined hands with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and shown no interest in stopping sale of crude oil to India at concessional rates.
Hence, Russia’s war in Ukraine has not in any way weakened as the US President thought his tariff war and imposition of penalty on India for its purchase of Russian crude would do. This seems to have led Trump to go on the offensive against Russia over Ukraine by pledging his support by way of arms supply and expressing the conviction that Ukraine stands to win and regain lost territories from Russia. Skeptics and his baiters may express serious doubts about Trump’s motives. He has repeatedly shown inconsistency in pursuing his military and economic policies. Asked whether he still trusted the Russian president, Trump said he would know in a month. This is more than prevarication since he is apparently leaving room for yet another volte face, if that suits him. He may again revert to his earlier position that Russia is right and Ukraine is wrong.
A crucial element in Trump’s faith in Ukraine’s ability to wrest control of its own territories from Russia is that he asserted Ukraine can do so with help from its “European allies.” He stopped short of openly declaring that he would go to the rescue of Ukraine, at least not now. This seems to be encouraging Putin to continue with his drone forays into European skies.
For this reason, political and military analysts are sceptical about his newfound conviction about Ukraine’s winnability. It could also be that Trump is thinking like a businessman, which he truly is. He sees and receives information that Russia’s economic situation is getting worse. The combined effect of Western sanctions, slower domestic growth, soaring inflation, budget deficits and higher interest rates has greatly affected Russia’s economy this year.
The Kremlin, of course, typically responded to Trump’s post, saying Russia has no choice but to continue the war and called the US President’s comment “mistaken.” Russia may not be far from the truth. Trump is merely trying to salvage his reputation after Putin failed to live up to his expectations, dashing to the ground his hope for winning the Nobel Peace Prize.