New Delhi: If countries implement their current climate pledges, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to drop only 6 per cent below 2019 levels by 2035, meaning the projected reduction is substantially off track, compared to the dip required to limit global warming, a UN report released Tuesday said.
The ‘2026 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report’ by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said even if these commitments — called NDCs — are fully implemented, including conditional elements, emissions are likely to be just 9 per cent below 2019 levels by 2035.
The report comes days after another UN report revealed that the 1.5-degree Celsius temperature target was now completely out of reach. It also stated that the best the world could do is restrict the global rise in temperatures to 1.8 degrees Celsius and try to pull it back.
The new report noted that most of the new NDCs are linked to long-term decarbonisation targets, which involve reaching net zero emissions between 2040 and 2070, with the majority for 2050.
Implementation of NDCs and these long-term targets would imply a best-estimate warming of 1.7-2.3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
However, returning warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require substantial additional GHG emission reductions in the coming years, said the report.
The findings are based on the examination of 127 new NDCs, representing 154 parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement, which were submitted between January 1, 2024, and August 31, 2026.
Under the agreement, nations decide their climate actions on their own, and every subsequent set of NDCs must mark a progression over existing ones.
The report highlighted that the new generation of NDCs shows climate action was becoming more deeply embedded across economies and societies.
Increasingly, NDCs involve local and regional authorities, civil society and the private sector in planning, implementing and monitoring climate action, it said.
But a lot more is required in terms of slashing GHG emissions to curb global warming.
