Santosh Kumar Mohapatra
India aspires to become a developed nation by 2047. It is already one of the world’s largest economies and has one of the world’s youngest populations. Yet beneath the impressive statistics of GDP, digital expansion and infrastructure creation lies a fundamental question: Are we in vesting adequately in the human beings who are expected to build the India of 2047? The durable solution lies in comprehensive educational reforms, adequate public investment, free and quality education for every deserving student, transparent governance, stronger public institutions and, above all, the creation of large-scale opportunities for decent and dignified employment. This broader perspective finds a powerful explanation in the celebrated book Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty by Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu and political scientist James A. Robinson.
Their central argument is both simple and profound: nations do not become prosperous merely because they possess natural resources, favourable geography or a particular culture. They prosper when they build inclusive institutions that are transparent, accountable and capable of providing equal opportunities. When institutions become weak, exclusionary, unaccountable or inefficient, public confidence erodes, and the foundations of sustainable development begin to weaken. Education is the foundation of human capital. Roads, ports, airports, factories and digital networks are undoubtedly important, but it is the educated, skilled, healthy, creative and innovative people who build, operate and improve these assets. Nobel laureate economist Prof. Amartya Sen’s concept of development is particularly relevant here. Development, according to Sen, is not simply an expansion of income or GDP; it is an expansion of human capabilities and substantive freedoms. Basic education and healthcare constitute essential social opportunities that governments must provide to remove structural barriers and empower disadvantaged citizens. When essential services become excessively expensive, inequality deepens, and millions remain trapped in what Sen describes as capability deprivation. Unfortunately, India’s education system presents a disturbing contradiction.
Governments repeatedly speak about education, skills, innovation, knowledge and the demographic dividend, but public expenditure and educational outcomes do not always reflect the scale and urgency of these commitments. Perhaps the most disturbing indicator emerges from the UDISE+ 2025–26 report. According to the data, only 51.9% of students who enter Class 1 remain in school until Class 12. This means that nearly 48% of children who begin Class 1 do not remain within the formal school system until Class 12. It represents millions of unfinished educational journeys and a massive loss of human potential.
A child who leaves school prematurely is more vulnerable to low-paid employment, unemployment, poverty and social exclusion. For a country aspiring to become a developed nation by 2047, such a high attrition rate should be treated as a matter of national urgency. The crisis does not end with school education. The problem is galore in higher education too. India’s students live in financial uncertainty. Fellowships are often delayed, recruitment in universities and research institutions takes enormous time, and many highly qualified researchers remain underutilised, unemployed or underemployed. When a society invests years in educating its brightest minds but fails to provide them with meaningful opportunities, frustration is inevitable. This is not merely an employment problem. It is a waste of human capital. The inadequacy of public investment is perhaps the most glaring contradiction in India’s educational policy. The Kothari Commission recommended that India should spend at least 6% of GDP on education. Central government expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP has declined from 0.55% in 2014–15 to 0.41% in 2023–24, further falling to 0.34% in 2025 26, and is estimated at 0.35% in 2026–27. Globally, average public expenditure on education is around 4.4% of GDP, while developed countries generally spend around 6–7%.
The condition of scientific research deserves equally serious attention. India’s Gross Expenditure on Research and Development rose to 0.84% of GDP in 2023–24. This is an improvement in absolute terms, but it remains well below the global average of about 1.2% and India’s own target of 2% by 2035.
A country cannot aspire to technological leadership while chronically underinvesting in research and underutilising human capital. If human capital is not properly harnessed, demographic dividend can gradually turn into a demographic disappointment.
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