By Dhurjati Mukherjee
With the next COP31 scheduled to be held in Türkiye from November 9 to 20, 2026, fossil fuels and deforestation are expected to figure prominently in the discussions, as they did last year. Their contribution to accelerating climate change and intensifying natural disasters has assumed greater urgency in the wake of the recent calamity in Nepal and similar disasters in other parts of the world. The focus is also likely to shift towards disaster mitigation, with countries under pressure to evolve a concrete and coordinated strategy to prevent, prepare for and respond to such climate-related disasters.
Climate change acts as a multiplier, amplifying the frequency, intensity and destructiveness of natural disasters worldwide. Rising global temperature accelerates the hydrological cycle, leading to heavier monsoon downpours and severe flash floods. Worse, marginalised communities in countries like India and children suffer the most as they lack access to resilient infrastructure, early warning systems or safety nets like insurance.
While the government highlights India’s environmental performance, citing the country’s relatively low per capita emissions, it is simultaneously pushing ahead with the construction of four- and six-lane highways to facilitate and promote tourist traffic to religious destinations in remote and ecologically fragile regions, seemingly overlooking the environmental risks involved.
The future of the planet is indeed bleak as many studies have pointed out. The United Nations confirmed this possibility in a report titled ‘Limiting Overshoot Spotlight’, compiled by the UNEF, which predicted that an indifferent world is on its way to breaching the 1.5 degree Celsius barrier shortly. Moreover, it may be pointed out that even if every nation were to honour the pledge of meeting its climate goals, global temperatures are expected to rise by around 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 above pre-industrial levels. The outcome would be catastrophic.
In addition is the loss of Himalayan glaciers, which are losing mass 65% faster than they were a decade ago. For India, the challenges are not just environmental but economic as well. The Himalayas feed the Indus, Ganga and the Brahmaputra river systems, which in turn support agriculture, industry and livelihoods downstream.
In July, the Centre had informed Parliament that 56 glacial lakes had been classified as ‘very high risk’, following a scientific assessment of 189 high-risk lakes in the Himalayan region. The latest report estimated that Rs 64.8 lakh crore or 21.5% of the country’s GDP is dependent on the Himalayas.
Glacial lakes require continuous monitoring but unfortunately, only about 21 of the estimated 40,000 glaciers across the Himalaya-Karakoram region are currently being monitored.
Another important imperative for India, after the August disaster, is to establish protocols jointly with China and Nepal under which exceptional upstream events can be automatically located across borders. Where observations have clear downstream relevance, scientific data should not have to travel through the full machinery of diplomacy.
The August catastrophe once again tells us that another map must sit beside the geopolitical one. On that map, Himalayan security must have interlocking dimensions such as ecological security, infrastructure security and knowledge security to stop disasters.
Thus, the challenge to combat global warming is indeed an enormous task and India is in a critical situation to withstand the consequences of heat affecting all sections of society.
The recent Yale Centre for Environmental Law and Policy report titled Environment Protection Index 2026 ranked India 176 out of 177 countries, scoring 22.46 out of 100 due to India’s low standing on air pollution, high reliance on coal and inadequate biodiversity protection.
The very poor ranking of the country is obviously a cause of serious concern at a time when emissions need to be controlled while disasters in the Himalayan terrain are a threat.
It is critical the government should concentrate on electric transition in a massive manner on all fronts, including freight and transport, followed by renewed emphasis on renewables, including nuclear energy in the coming years. All this needs to be achieved within the International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development ending in 2033.