Moscow: The ongoing war in West Asia may increase India’s demand for Russian crude oil and could touch the levels of 1.5 million barrels per day, reaching the peak levels in 2024-2025, according to a leading expert on global oil trade.
Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had told state TV that Russia sees increased demand for its oil from India for subsequent refining.
Wednesday, leading expert on global hydrocarbons trade Maxim Malkov told the official news agency TASS that the West Asia war will push India’s oil imports from Russia.
Supply volumes could reach peak levels in 2024,2025, i.e., around 1.5 million barrels per day, and even more, if Russian oil companies can quickly ramp up drilling to meet increased demand, Malkov was quoted as saying by the agency.
According to Malkov, India’s increasing purchases of Russian oil are becoming increasingly likely for two reasons: first, India is sensitive to energy import prices; second, there is a physical shortage of oil due to supply disruptions from West Asia, coupled with India’s relatively low reserves.
Other experts believe that if the conflict in West Asia drags on and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz intensify, the US may be interested in allowing more Russian oil into India and the global market overall to avoid excessive price increases.
In such a scenario, Russian oil supplies to India could return to the 1.5-2 million bpd range, and the offshore reserves accumulated in recent months could be sold off, financial analyst of FINAM group Sergei Kaufman believes.
According to Kaufman, Russian oil supplies to India have fallen to almost 1 million bpd due to sanctions against Russian companies and US pressure on India, having previously hovered in the 1.5-2 million bpd range for a long time.