Geneva/ New Delhi: El Nino weather conditions associated with droughts and flooding have a 50-60 percent possibility of developing by May this year, the UN World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said Tuesday, but any El Nino was not expected to be strong.
“WMO recently confirmed 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 as the four warmest years on record. But even a weak El Nino is likely to make 2019 warmer than 2018,” Maxx Dilley, director of WMO’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch, said in a statement.
Even a weak El Nino is likely to make 2019 warmer than 2018
Maxx Dilley| Director, Climate Prediction and Adaptation, WMO
A strong El Nino event is defined by sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific rising to at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above average. The WMO said it could practically rule out the chance of a “La Nina” event – the cooling counterpart to El Nino.
Monday, Skymet said India’s southwest monsoon, which waters more than half of the country’s farmland, is likely to be normal this year as odds of an El Nino fade.
“The probability of normal showers this year is more than 50 percent,” Jatin Singh, managing director of the New Delhi-based private forecaster, told reporters in a preliminary forecast. The odds of excess showers or drought are limited, he added.
Rainfall between 96 percent and 104 percent of the long-term average of about 89 centimeters is considered normal, Singh said, adding that rain is likely to be in the lower end of the normal range.
Meanwhile, in Indonesia the government has declared 16 provinces across the country as prone to forest and land fires ahead of the upcoming El Nino.
The UN Tuesday revealed that the agency’s Chief, Bishow Parajuli met with Zimbabwean Deputy Chief Secretary, President and Cabinet Mupamhanga, Government Ministries, UN Agencies and donors as well as non-governmental organisations in Harare. The meeting was held to prepare for looming food shortages due to the El Nino-induced drought.
