New Delhi/Thiruvananthapuram, June 5: As a delayed monsoon hit the southern state of Kerala, weather forecasting agencies on Friday said the national capital will have to wait longer for monsoon showers.
“Like Kerala, Delhi will also have to wait for at least 5-6 days for the first monsoon showers. As per the recent weather developments, all we can say is that the city will receive monsoon only in the first week of July and not on last week of June, like earlier,” confirmed both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet.
The IMD is a government weather forecasting agency while Skymet is a private weather forecasting institution.
Skymet’s chief meteorologist Mahesh Palawat told IANS that the monsoon that has hit Kerala, during its advancement towards the north, will halt after reaching Uttar Pradesh, which will cause a delay in its hitting the national capital.
He also said Delhi along with Punjab and Haryana will have a normal monsoon and the people of the states should not expect excess rainfall.
However IMD told IANS that they would be able to forecast more clearly about the monsoon in Delhi only in the next three to four days after observing the rainfall in areas where the monsoon would have arrived.
The anxious wait for the onset of the southwest monsoon was finally over as it hit Kerala on Friday.
“Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala today (Friday) against the normal date of June 1,” a weather bulletin said.
“It has further advanced into entire south Arabian Sea, some more parts of central Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep area and Kerala, some parts of coastal and south interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of central and northeast Bay of Bengal,” it said.
It further added that the conditions were favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more areas of the central Arabian Sea, Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, some parts of Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of central and north Bay of Bengal and southern parts of northeastern states during the next 48 hours.
To declare that the monsoon has arrived in Kerala the data recorded at the 14 weather stations located at Lakshadweep, Kerala and in Mangalore was being closely monitored.
The officials monitor the rains starting May 10. If 60 percent of the weather stations or more record 2.5 mm of rain for two continuous days, it satisfies the criteria that the monsoon has arrived.
Another yardstick that the IMD uses is the strength of the wind. Cloud movements are also a key indicator for the weathermen when it comes to announcing the monsoon.
The IMD report shows that in the past one decade the operational forecasts were correct. But this time it failed as the forecast date was May 30, with a model error of plus or minus four days.
And now that the southwest monsoon has set in, it advances northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country around July 15. (IANS)
