Dr Anil Singh
Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads to Bangladesh on a two-day official visit today and this visit is expected to effect a major breakthrough in bilateral relationship, set against the fact that the two countries have hitherto not been able to make any progress in solving several outstanding bilateral issues due to bureaucratic inertia and lack of political will.
The previous NDA government led by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had tried to forge close ties with Dhaka to establish a broad-based relationship. However, the then BNP government spurned the offer. Since 2007, there has been a positive engagement between India and Bangladesh, especially in the aftermath of coming to power of the Awami League in January 2009. Both countries have witnessed exchange of high-level visits in the past six years.
Undoubtedly, Prime Minister Modi’s visit is a continuation of India’s existing policy towards Bangladesh. Nevertheless, there are high expectations from the Modi visit, especially after the conclusion of the Land Boundary Agreement between the two countries. This pact (LBA) will help India in settling a 41-year-old border dispute with Bangladesh. Besides, it will allow both countries to exchange lands in each other’s territory and it will also resolve the long-standing problem of land in adverse possession. The congenial ambience generated in the aftermath of LBA may spur both sides to move forward on an accord on Teesta River water sharing.
Bangladesh shares 54 rivers with India including the Teesta, and has for long sought an agreement on water. Failure of an earlier attempt to reach a deal on Teesta River in 2011 due to opposition from the chief minister of West Bengal had culminated in a souring of relations between India and Bangladesh. As of now, West Bengal seems inclined to seek an agreement on Teesta water sharing with Bangladesh. During her visit to Bangladesh in February 2015, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee told Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina that she will act as “a bridge” and take steps to resolve the water-sharing issue. The two countries are exchanging river flow data on Teesta at Gazaldoba. Banerjee joining Prime Minister Modi for the Dhaka visit has high symbolic value and it is a signal that she will eventually give the nod for the Teesta agreement. If the agreement on Teesta River is reached during the Modi visit, it would be a second breakthrough this year after the LBA and it will take bilateral relationship to a new trajectory of growth.
Modi’s visit is likely to witness signing of several agreements between India and Bangladesh on strengthening rail, road and shipping linkages. The memoranda of understanding on transport links to be signed during the visit will help increase trade between India and Bangladesh and improve connectivity with India’s North-East. Flights already operate between Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai in India and Dhaka and Chittagong in Bangladesh. The Kolkata-Dhaka Maitree Express, inaugurated on 14 April 2008, runs thrice a week between the two countries. There are two direct bus services between Dhaka and Agartala, capital of Tripura, besides the Dhaka-Kolkata service. According to a media report, Modi is expected to flag off another bus service between Dhaka and Guwahati via Shillong in Meghalaya.
Trade and transit through waterways between the two countries is regulated by the Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade (PIWTT) signed in 1972. There are four routes under the PIWTT and five ports of call identified in each country to provide facilities to the vessels of the other country engaged in inter-country trade. According to media reports, about 1.5million metric tonnes of goods are transported through this route. The two-way trade in 2012-2013 was $5.34billion with India’s exports to Bangladesh accounting for $4.776billion and imports $0.564million.
In 2010, India signed a $1billion loan deal with Bangladesh, the largest line of credit received by Bangladesh under a single agreement, for developing railways and communications infrastructure in Bangladesh. This was followed by the two countries signing a 35-year electricity transmission deal under which India will be exporting up to 500mw of power to Bangladesh. Dhaka also signed a $1.7billion pact with the National Thermal Power Corporation for the construction of two coal-fired plants in southern Bangladesh.
China’s growing profile around India’s periphery, especially in Bangladesh, is a matter of serious concern for India. China is often looked upon as the ‘most dependable and consistent friend of Bangladesh’ by almost all major political parties of Bangladesh. In June 2014, Bangladesh and China signed five agreements, including one for building a 1,320megawatt power plant in Bangladesh with Chinese assistance. Besides, Beijing is Dhaka’s largest trading partner as well as the largest supplier of military equipment. China is creating a so-called “string of pearls” across the Indian Ocean by funding port developments in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh, which is a matter of serious concern for India.
India is said to be the pivot around which Bangladeshi political parties define their foreign policy agenda. A stable, moderate Bangladesh is in India’s long-term interests. Constructive Indo-Bangladesh ties can be a major stabilising factor for the entire South Asian region. This makes it imperative for both sides to reduce the mutual ‘trust deficit’ that has crept into their bilateral ties. India’s generous and constructive steps to improve relations with Bangladesh can go a long way in consolidating its relations with other neighbouring countries like Bhutan, Myanmar and Nepal. Land Boundary Agreement has raised the hopes of resolving outstanding issues, especially Teesta River dispute, during the current visit of Prime Minister Modi.
The writer is Executive Editor with Aaj Tak and views
expressed in this article are
author’s own.
