US President Joe Biden’s visit to Kyiv February 20 at a time when the war between Ukraine and Russia is entering a crucial phase nearly a year after the Russian invasion is a dramatic and symbolic morale booster for the Ukrainian forces. Indications are that the visit was meticulously planned for months, though shrouded in utmost secrecy. The US administration had earlier denied there was any plan for the visit. President Biden did not even board the usual plane and took a train in Poland to enter Ukraine in a closely guarded secret move. Moscow had been informed of the visit only hours before Biden left for his destination so as to avoid any misunderstanding or misjudgment between the two nuclear-armed powers, according to accounts from Washington.
The question is what possibly made Biden show such solidarity with Ukraine when the US-led West has already poured into the war-ravaged country billions of dollars worth of arms, ammunition and human aid apart from announcing more sanctions against Russia in the offing. The intent, it seems, is not simply to rearm Ukraine to send a loud and clear message that the West will rally behind the country in the event of a highly likely Russian Spring offensive. Instead, the purpose is believed to be to convince Russia that the US and its Western allies are serious about what they are talking regarding the threat to Europe that Russian invasion of Ukraine poses and their resolve to ensure Russia does not succeed in its plan to take control of the country.
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The urgency of the Biden visit can also be explained by the volatile situation in the former Russian state of Moldova to the south of Ukraine where Russia is accused of fomenting trouble to either invade or prop up a pro-Moscow regime. Several thousand protesters rallied in Moldova’s capital February 19 to demand the country’s new pro-Western government fully cover citizens’ winter heating bills amid a cost-of-living crisis and skyrocketing inflation. The protest was organised by a recently formed group called Movement for the People and supported by members of Moldova’s Russia-friendly Shor Party, which holds six seats in the former Soviet republic’s 101-seat legislature.
The protests are part of a plan to destabilise the pro-West government. This became clear with the demonstrators calling for the resignation of the country’s President, chanting “Down with Maia Sandu!” Dozens of pro-government protesters also gathered nearby to show support for Sandu’s government. Sandu had on February 13 outlined what she claimed was an alleged plot by Moscow to overthrow the government in order to put the nation “at the disposal of Russia,” and to derail it from its course to one day join the European Union. The pattern being followed in Moldova, says its President, was a copy of Russia’s interference with Ukraine’s affairs. In carrying out the plan, Russia appears to rely on several internal forces, including Shor.
Moldova is also in need of Western assistance. Earlier this month, its pro-European government resigned, unable to cope up with the crises largely fuelled by Moscow which used its economic muscle to bring it to its knees. Moldova depends on Russia for 100 per cent of its gas supplies.
It is being feared that Russia may launch its assault on Ukraine from the south using the soil and airspace of Moldova which shares 1,222 km border with Ukraine. About 1,500 Russian troops are already stationed in Moldova in the unrecognised, Moscow-backed breakaway state of Transnistria. A new Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, has been swiftly appointed and he has pledged to cement ties with Europe to pull his country out of the crisis.
Russia is desperate to win the war with Ukraine. It has failed in its objective even after fighting with the country for one full year sustaining huge losses in terms of men and material. No wonder it has branded Moldova as yet another “proxy” of the West.
Biden’s surprise visit to Ukraine seems to have put a spoke in Russia’s wheel. Its plan to engage in a decisive battle from the south of Ukraine using its agents in Moldova appears to be in jeopardy.
