In an unprecedented case in US history, former President Donald Trump has been indicted by a grand jury in New York on charges including hush-money paid to a porn film actor Stormy Daniels in 2016 shortly before the presidential election. That gives a new twist to the well recognised Trump tactic of bullying and denigrating opponents, the judiciary, the law enforcing agencies and the parliamentary system adopted by the former President for the past few years. Now, it will not be enough for him to play the victim card, resort to racist rhetoric and project himself as innocent. A protracted legal battle is ahead amidst uncertainties over Trump’s third run for Presidency the next year and how the indictment will impact his political future. There is, however, little doubt, going by reactions so far, that Trump has been taken off guard by the verdict. He seems to have deluded himself into the belief that the indictment would not be pronounced so soon with the presidential election a few months away.
The specific charges and the evidence used still remain unclear as the indictment is under seal. But, reports so far and statements made by Trump’s lawyers do suggest the charges could include the payment of $130,000 made by Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen to the actor on Trump’s behalf. In fact, the deal is said to have been clinched to buy Daniels’ silence to facilitate Trump’s victory in the election. He is said to have reimbursed the amount to Cohen soon after he won the election. This was then passed off as legal expenses. In the US laws paying hush money is not illegal. But, falsification of business records with an ulterior motive to commit further crime may go against Trump as it violates campaign finance laws.
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Now, the question is whether the indictment really makes Trump’s future look bleak or will it help him turn the table on his opponents. Supporters of Trump, including some Republican senators, have said the indictment sets “a dangerous precedent.” But the charge may not be tenable since the system of justice is required to show to the people that it does not favour anyone nor does it ignore the wrongdoings of the powerful. Trump has done everything possible over the past seven years to destroy that belief. He repeatedly and publicly defied laws and disregarded the US constitution. The verdict may be cited as an attempt to restore that trust in the judiciary.
Trump will find it difficult to convince the people that he is a victim of witch-hunt, even though he and some of his Republican friends have alleged he is being “persecuted” and not “prosecuted”. However, his campaigns have been based on variations of this narrative. This time they may not get the traction as they got before since, in this case, a grand jury found that he had broken the law. It is really hard to brand an independent grand jury, comprising ordinary people, part of a witch-hunt. Interesting to note is that the identities of these independent jury members are always kept secret.
Experts argue that the critical point of the indictment is that the grand jury had relied on credible evidence to come to the conclusion that Trump had broken the law. This will influence outcomes of other serious cases against Trump. For example, prosecutors in Georgia and Washington will be able to use the indictment to build their cases more convincingly.
The broader question is, however, whether Democrats will be able to score over Trump on the basis of the indictment. There are far weightier cases against Trump, including certain dealings of the Trump Organization, his role in inciting the January 6, 2021 insurrection and withholding classified information after demitting office. There is no reason for the Democrats to be euphoric about the indictment since Trump is likely to polarise Americans further by campaigning that he is being subjected to political persecution.
Trump may find the legal process somewhat difficult to handle following the indictment, but his incendiary rhetoric has the power to swing voters. The US is in any case almost vertically split over supporting or opposing Trump. The former President appears to be down, but he sure is not out.
