Making a mockery of rule-based international order for one more time, US President Donald Trump, with the help of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has triggered a counter-revolution in Iran to replace the revolution of 1979 brought about by the clerics led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. In the process, the Middle East is now engulfed in war and renewed instability with serious economic and political consequences for the rest of the world. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israel airstrikes has set in motion leadership uncertainty, military escalation and fear of further repression in Iran, where forces loyal to Khamenei are well entrenched to launch retaliatory strikes.
The death of the man who controlled Iran’s decision-making for more than three decades has overnight changed power equations inside Tehran and raised urgent questions about who is now in charge of the country’s vast military apparatus at a time of open confrontation with Washington and Tel Aviv. Speculations are rife that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei, an influential leader within Iran’s power structure, might take over leadership. Iranian state media announced Khamenei’s death early March 1 while Trump confirmed American involvement in targeting the Iranian leader. Tehran responded within hours by launching missile attacks against Israel and several other countries in the region that host American military facilities.
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The irony of the situation is that when negotiations for Iran’s use of nuclear power were continuing, the self-proclaimed votary of peace – Trump – launched the most vicious attack wiping off the top echelons of the Islamist regime of Iran. Within hours, he warned Iran against escalating its military response in public messages posted on Truth Social. Referring to Iran’s threat to retaliate “harder than they have ever hit before,” Trump wrote “they better not do that” and said if that happened, US would hit them with a force “that has never been seen before.”
There is no doubt that Khamenei clamped a repressive regime, oppressing the country’s women population and silencing opposition voices ruthlessly. The regime is believed to be neck-deep in corruption and failed to tackle the economic crisis plaguing the people. This caused so much resentment among millions against the regime that the killing of the Supreme Leader was greeted by many who erupted with joy. Trump and Netanyahu urged the people of Iran to complete the task of regime change they had begun. But it appears more chaos and confusion will follow in the next few days with one of Iran’s most powerful figures, Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, signaling Iran’s defiance, vowing to “stab” America in the heart in retaliation.
Question is why Trump abandoned the path of negotiations and chose to wage war against Iran, while all the time talking about peace and projecting himself as a peace-maker of the world. Experts believe he needed this war as much for himself as for safeguarding so-called American interests, which according to him, were under serious threat by Iran under Khamenei. He went on the military offensive when the apex court of his country struck down his global tariff war as illegal and violative of the country’s Constitution, segregating the executive and the legislature. This defeat was crushing and he suffered a tremendous loss of face.
Though Trump immediately chose a different legal route to impose tariff of a maximum of 15 per cent, he knew the laws give him an incredibly short period of six months to continue with his tariff regime. Trump’s timing of war against Iran could be to divert global attention from his defeat inflicted on him by his country’s judiciary.
More importantly, it is said that Trump was desperate to stop Iran from selling cheap oil to China, which it was doing, in spite of heavy sanctions against Iran. China and Iran had signed a 25 year agreement as strategic partners in 2021. China remains Iran’s most trusted trade partner too. In 2025, China bought more than 80 percent of Iran’s shipped oil, accounting for more than 13 percent of all oil imported by China. Beijing has also granted membership to Iran in BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Friendship and oil trade with China is seen as one of the biggest reasons for the US attack on Iran.
