By Purna Chandra Jena
Odisha has achieved a remarkable statistical milestone that would challenge most large states. NITI Aayog’s Fiscal Health Index has ranked it number one among 18 major states in both editions published to date, with its score increasing from 67.8 in 2025 to 73.1 in the second edition released in March 2026. Its debt-to-GSDP ratio has decreased to 14.39%, and the fiscal deficit has remained low at 1.73% of GSDP, according to NITI Aayog, the Odisha Economic Survey 2025-26, and RBI’s State Finances study.
Yet the fiscal index has been revised twice, increasing Odisha’s score each time, while its social indices have remained static: NITI Aayog’s Health Index still relies on 2019-21 data, and its SDG India Index still reflects 2023-24, with Odisha scoring just 40/100 on Goal 4, quality education.
A state that has mastered the arithmetic of public finance has not yet cracked that of human development — and this isn’t about money. Odisha’s allocations have kept pace with, and even exceeded, its peers; capital outlay and revenue-surplus ratios are the envy of larger states. However, the returns have not matched the discipline behind them.
That imbalance has deep roots. The previous government ruled from 2000 to 2024, funding an expanding welfare architecture — KALIA for farmers, Biju Swasthya Kalyan Yojana for free healthcare, Mission Shakti for women’s self-help groups — while mining revenue increased. Odisha earned genuine credit for disaster resilience and PDS delivery, and its fiscal conservatism, banking mining windfalls rather than spending them, built the headroom the present government inherited.
Here’s the uncomfortable arithmetic: NFHS-5 (2019-21) found 31% of Odisha’s children stunted, 18% wasted, 64% anaemic — up sharply from 45% in NFHS-4 — with women’s anaemia worsening even as national trends improved. NFHS-6 (2023-24) complicates it further: stunting decreased to 26.8%, but wasting increased to 22.1% and underweight to 31.6%, while anaemia data disappeared nationwide, obscuring the picture just when it mattered most.
The 2025-26 budget of ₹2.90 lakh crore increased to ₹3.10 lakh crore in 2026-27, with the capital outlay representing the highest share among major states, and the flagship Subhadra Yojana, a ₹55,825-crore (2024-29) cash transfer programme for roughly one crore women. KALIA was replaced by CM-KISAN, Mamata by Subhadra — cash remains the default welfare instrument, shared with most other states, and not inherently wrong: CRISIL notes such spending nationwide has increased to nearly 2% of GSDP. However, transfers are politically convenient — visible, quick, easy to attribute — and, based on current evidence, not necessarily the most effective route to achieving outcomes.
Odisha’s SDG composite score increased by 15 points between 2018 and 2023-24, ranking among the best nationwide and demonstrating that the system can deliver when properly targeted and overseen. The remaining challenge is Goal 4: NITI Aayog’s own CEO specifically pointed out that for Odisha access is not the issue, but quality is.
Every planner in Bhubaneswar understands this: closing the gap requires no new taxes or expenditure, only redirecting resources. Funding the frontline workforce — Anganwadi and ASHA capacity, not cash — is the main constraint on reducing stunting and anaemia (IFPRI). Focus should be on learning rather than enrolment, using district ASER scores as benchmarks. CM-KISAN, Subhadra, and Gopabandhu Jana Arogya Yojana should be combined into a single Aadhaar ledger to reduce leakage. Collectors should be held accountable for health outcomes, not just fiscal targets, through Odisha’s quarterly scorecard. Additionally, last-mile delivery should be contracted out in the most tribal blocks, where results-based NGO payments have proven effective elsewhere. Odisha’s fiscal space is India’s best; the next rupee should be invested in delivery capacity, not just another cheque, under the discipline reflected in its Fiscal Health Index, or else the state will continue to top one NITI Aayog index while regretting another.
The writer is an Economic Advisor, Chief Minister’s Office, Government of Uttarakhand. Views are personal.
