New Delhi: The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan is leaving no stone unturned in its efforts to revive the Khalistan movement in Punjab. It is pumping in substantial funds, nurturing gangs to strengthen the nexus, and promoting groups operating from foreign countries.
The question, however, is whether this strategy is yielding results. The latest intelligence assessments suggest that the movement currently has a much louder presence on social media than on the ground.
Many people who once believed in and supported the movement, and donated generously to its cause, have since withdrawn their backing.
An official said that the reason why many are backing out or staying away from this movement is that they have realised that this is more of a criminal syndicate specialising in drugs and arms trade while also running an extortion racket.
The proscribed outfit Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), which remains the most vocal about the Khalistan movement, continues to make a desperate push. The SFJ, famous for targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and also organising referendums demanding a separate Khalistan nation carved out of Punjab, is now desperately trying to rework its strategy.
No longer are the referendums drawing thousands of people. A close look at the most recent referendums suggests the SFJ is unable to draw a gathering of more than 20 to 30 people.
“However, when the content is put up on social media, there is a lot of re-working of the videos that is done in a bid to amplify the event,” the official said.
Another official said Canada had long been the backbone of the Khalistan movement, with a sizeable section of the Sikh diaspora supporting the cause.
“The support base among the Canadian Sikhs for the Khalistan movement, which was at around 20 to 30 per cent, has dropped to below 5 per cent now,” the official said.
Many within the Sikh community feel that groups such as the SFJ have become liabilities and, owing to their criminal acts and nexus with dangerous syndicates, the hard work of the Sikhs in countries such as Canada is being largely undermined, the official said.
Another official said that the labelling of the Khalistanis as a serious national security threat by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) has also largely changed the perception of the Sikhs.
Adding further to the woes of the Khalistani elements is the rejection of their asylum claims by the Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) and the federal courts in Canada. These claims have been labelled as opportunistic in nature.
An Intelligence Bureau official said Indian and Canadian agencies were now working closely on the issue, adding that Khalistani groups had themselves created problems that were undermining their cause.
“The lack of major donations and the declining support for the moment has made them desperate for funds. They have been threatening the Sikh diaspora to dole out money and in the bargain have modelled themselves as desperate extortionists rather than activists fighting for a cause,” the official said.
While there has been a major fall in the movement, the Indian agencies are not taking these elements lightly. The traction may be down largely, but it has only added to their desperation. In this desperate bid, these elements could trigger something major. Moreover, the ISI, too, is analysing the situation and is planning to increase spending for the Khalistan movement.
The Pakistani spy agency is playing its cards carefully as it does not want the cash-strapped elements within groups such as the SFJ to siphon off funds.
The ISI would, however, back the SFJ’s social media initiatives and also invest in political advocacy groups to leverage the movement.
In 2023, a Sikh delegation called on Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and said that the steps taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the community have led to the fizzling out of the moment.
The SFJ would try to undo such statements and will try to put out fake narratives about how the government of India is anti-Sikh. This, the SFJ hopes, would put the Sikh community against the Narendra Modi government and violence would eventually break out in Punjab, an official said.
