A very strong Super El Niño is currently brewing in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed the 2°C threshold by late 2026. Climate scientists predict a high likelihood of this becoming one of the most powerful events on record. Models from the WMO indicate that the peak intensification will occur through the upcoming autumn months, with c
onditions expected to linger into early 2027. Scientists warn this event will layer its temporary thermal spikes on top of the already sensitive global climate’s elevated baseline, resulting in unprecedented global heat extremes. The recent disaster due to the flash flood and mudslide along the Nepal-Tibet border triggered by glacial collapse is generally attributed to global warming which is now compounded by the super El Nino event. Climatologists explained that global warming is possibly causing the permafrost, which is partially holding some mountainsides together, to thaw and degrade.
The consequences are alarming! The event significantly heightens the risk of extreme weather conditions worldwide in coming days. Forecasters warn of severe climatic disruptions, including drier periods and potential droughts in Australia and parts of South America, heavy rainfall and flooding in Southern Europe and parts of North America and Ecuador and Peru. This also threatens the global food security and trade routes like the Panama Canal.
El Ninos are temperature surges in the waters of the equatorial Pacific that significantly impacts weather patterns across various regions of the world. By releasing vast amounts of oceanic heat into the atmosphere, it raises global temperatures, leading to extreme weather conditions and heatwaves worldwide.
One of the crucial impacts of El Niño on India is the weakening of the monsoon winds. During the southwest monsoon season, trade winds originating from South America typically blow westward towards the Asian continent. As these winds traverse the Pacific Ocean on their way, they gain copious heat from the sea waters and weaken. This significantly reduces atmospheric moisture and heat, resulting in diminished rainfall and erratic precipitation patterns across the Indian subcontinent. It leads to widespread drought and famine in India. Since 1871, six of India’s major droughts have been attributed to El Niño, including the droughts of 2002 and 2009. Weather data spanning over 135 years from 1880 to 2014 indicate that around 90% of El Niño years were characterized by below-normal rainfall, while severe drought conditions were reported in 65% of those years.
The southwest monsoon this year has been heavily disrupted by the strengthening of El Niño. While early forecasts predicted severe, season-long deficits, sparking a steep 40% rainfall shortfall in June and July, the Bay of Bengal depressions in July came as a crusader with heavy downpours stabilising the national deficit. The Ministry of Agriculture tagged 111 high-priority districts vulnerable to El Niño. Despite mid-season recoveries, critical reservoir levels in states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu faced severe depletion in June and July. For example, Mumbai’s lakes dipped to 9% capacity, prompting water shortages and power cuts, while Pune resorted to alternate-day supply restrictions.
Global warming and climate change have been, by far, the greatest environmental challenge faced by humanity in this century. Now, these baseline changes are heavily compounded by cyclical El Niño events, amplifying the severity of extreme weather conditions across the globe, with drastic consequences for India and the highly vulnerable state of Odisha. The world must come together in planning a strategy to mitigate the disaster.
The writer is a former education officer, Regional Science Centre,Bhubaneswar.