What was considered India’s demographic dividend is beginning to appear less like an opportunity and more like a warning signal. A disconcerting recent report from the NITI Aayog has revealed that a whopping 8.7 crore Indian youths aged 15 to 29 are not engaged in education, employment, or training, highlighting a critical challenge for India’s future workforce and economic growth. The report titled ‘Reimagining Skilling for Viksit Bharat@2047’ said the estimate is based on data from the 78th round of the National Sample Survey conducted in 2021. The sheer scale of this number should force political leaders and their appointed planners a fundamental rethink of India’s economic priorities. A young population can drive growth only when youngsters have access to education, skills and productive employment. In the absence of these, demographics can turn into hostile liability.
These 8.7 crore young Indians, a number which is derived from a NSS study of 2021and is certain to have increased over the past 5 years, whom the government think-tank has categorised as NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training), represent a particularly troubling failure in what is supposed to be a natural and smooth transition from classrooms to livelihoods. NITI Aayog labelling this group of young citizens as ‘NEET’ is also a very interesting point to note, especially after the highly impactful Jantar Mantar students protest against NEET paper leak issue this past month.
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The NEET group includes unemployed young people, but also those who have simply fallen outside the systems designed to prepare them for work. The problem is therefore much larger than unemployment statistics suggest. A young person who has stopped looking for work or who lacks the means to acquire marketable skills may disappear from conventional employment data while remaining economically excluded.
Another troubling revelation of the report is that only 8.25 per cent of India’s graduates are employed in roles aligned with their qualifications. This is a damning indictment of an education system that continues to produce degrees without guaranteeing employability or entrepreneurship. India has indeed expanded access to higher education, but that expansion has not been matched by commensurate improvements in the quality, relevance and practical orientation of basic education. Any degree that does not translate into meaningful employment merely becomes an expensive certificate of disappointment. For students from affluent families, the deficiencies of formal education can often be compensated for through private coaching, internships, professional courses and additional training. For poorer students, however, these options are frequently unavailable. They may already be struggling with college expenses and needless private tuition. Asking those students to acquire additional skills in the private market effectively makes employability a privilege rather than a right. For such families, years of spending on education of children seldom end in upward mobility but rather in unemployment, underemployment or jobs unrelated to their qualifications. Add to this the social atmosphere which does not encourage young Indians to take up hard work and you get the prescription for a grand disaster. This explains why many young people after graduation simply accept whatever job offers a stable income, irrespective of their qualifications, while others fail to find work and ultimately become NEET. This represents not merely a loss for the individual but a massive waste of public and private investment in education.
Seen in the context of the NITI Aayog’s report, the government’s repeated assertion that India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy and the world’s sixth-largest economy appears to sound hollow. In fact, the report exposes a profound disconnect between headline economic growth and the lived economic experience of millions of young Indians.
An economy that cannot productively absorb its educated youth has serious structural weaknesses. Over the past decade, the government’s economic record has been marked by policy shocks whose costs are still visible across the economy. Demonetization disrupted millions of small businesses and informal livelihoods, while the hurried, and to a great extent, flawed implementation of a complicated GST regime imposed heavy compliance costs on businesses. On top of this, a steadily depreciating rupee has increased the cost of simple household expenses. Higher food and energy prices are weakening household purchasing power at a time when India’s household savings are at a historic low.
India’s demographic dividend was supposed to be its greatest economic advantage. On the contrary, the humongous scale of youth soutside education and employment suggests that this dividend could anytime become a demographic bomb. The government must treat the 8.7-crore NEET figure as a national economic emergency and start rethinking on policies aimed at them.
It evidently is a false government claim that India aspires to become a developed economy while millions of its young citizens remain disconnected from education, skills and work.
