Avilash Roul
Can the Belem, Brazil, of the emerging economies bloc BRICS, stitch together rich (North) and poor (South) countries to shape the future governance of climate change? Among other substantive agendas, the major focus in Belem is to minimise the deep distrust between developed and developing member countries, which emerged at the Baku climate meeting (COP29) last year. In Brazilian President Lula’s conviction that the ‘COP30 in Belém is the moment of truth and science’. Thus, the world expects that Brazil’s presidency of COP30 to deliver a mandate that will maintain trust in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, faith in multilateralism, and belief in the COP process itself. Is it achievable?
Some COPs, the highest decision-making body in the UNFCCC, are forgettable, nevertheless important in the three decades of complex climate change negotiations. COP29 is one such in the annals of climate negotiations that will be mentioned when there is criticism against the COP process. An example is that India’s outburst against the agreement and the process through which it was adopted aggravated the criticism against the COPs.
Meanwhile, the 2025 Biennial Transparency Synthesis Report of the UNFCCC, released on October 31, reveals that 109 members are actively adhering to the Paris Agreement.At the same time, the report exposes a substantial gap in the finances needed in developing countries to execute climate action plans. While 37 developing countries reported a total financial requirement of $3,396.23 billion for climate action up to 2030, 49 countries reported receiving only $60.84 billion in climate finance during the 2021-2022 reporting period.Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) to report their climate actions, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, under the transparency and accountability clause.
Despite the appreciation from the UNFCCC Secretariat that the Paris Agreement is on track and progressing, the member countries are flouting their responsibility. Only 64 member countries, together accounting for 30 percent of total GHG emissions, have submitted their updated NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) out of 195 Parties to the UNFCCC. The NDC Synthesis Report, released by UNFCCC on October 28, discloses that developed and major economies have not declared a timeline to phase out fossil fuels. Similarly, the National Adaptation Plans (NAP) Synthesis report acknowledges, despite a lack of financial support, that 67 developing member countries are building the foundations for more climate-resilient economies and societies. From the 300 billion dollars of climate finance pledged at the end of the COP29 to mobilise 1.3 trillion dollars till 2035, it is going to be a litmus test for the leadership of Brazil.
Brazil, under President Lula, aspires to lead the Global South by strengthening multilateralism and democratising the global governance system. Climate change is one such priority agenda of the Lula administration to revitalise multilateralism. Under the theme, ‘Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet’ during the G20 Summit in November 2024 at Rio, the administration set the momentum for Belem. With the UN and UNESCO, Brazil established the Global Initiative on Information Integrity on Climate Change to investigate, expose and dismantle disinformation on climate change. Similarly, on the backdrop of unprecedented unilateral US protectionism, in an extraordinary BRICS virtual summit in September, Brazil passionately urged member countries to join and lead the proposal of a new development paradigm – the United Nations Climate Change Council to strengthen global climate governance. Will this new form get traction in Belem?
Developed countries are adamant about their contribution and directions. The EU and nine member countries of the G20 group, which accounted for 50 percent of GHG emissions, have not submitted their updated NDCs. The present US administration is hell bent against the BRICS group as well as a staunch critic of the Lula administration. The disruption and influence in Belem’s outcome, in terms of non-committal, creating division among groups, employing pressure tactics through trade measures and other negotiating manoeuvres, is highly anticipated from the US despite its high-profile absence, which has withdrawn twice from the Paris Agreement.
Many are flocking together in Belem, not just to attend the proceedings of the official and unofficial meetings, gatherings, or protests, but to revisit and remember the achievements of the historic 1992 Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro. Most of the representatives of civil societies are looking forward to the outcome of Belem in comparison to the greatest achievements of means and principles of global environmental governance, including the COP process in the Earth Summit and climate justice. Noting the fact that the UNFCCC emerged at the Earth Summit with agreement on biodiversity and a blueprint for the 21st century. Building on the legacies and presidencies of the Earth Summit and the Rio+20 Conference (2012), Brazil urges member countries to revive the spirit of ‘collective aggregation’. Brazil itself is making no stone unturned to make the COP30 as remarkable as the COP21 Paris Climate Summit, as historic as the Earth Summit. Brazil needs to bring together North and South in solidarity and forge a new cooperation to face the common enemy- climate change.Brazil must rewrite the COP30. The uphill task is surmountable.
The writer is an international advisor on climate change risks and transboundary rivers.