The currency crisis is bound to impact India’s growth. Indeed, a deep crisis is ahead. The falling rupee is likely to hit the common man’s pocket as domestic fuel prices may rise sharply despite a global thaw in crude prices. Would Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit, his close embrace and promises make a difference? Putin’s visit may help New Delhi in many spheres, but not in the crude oil sector. Russian crude has impacted India, though they never benefited from the deals. The benefit was only for two companies, one Indian and the other Russian. Their profits alone swelled, while people, government and companies continued to buy fuel at high prices.
India-Russia ties go back to the Soviet era and have endured irrespective of the changing geopolitical landscape, this time coinciding with New Delhi’s talks with the US on a trade deal to cut punitive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on its goods over India’s purchases of Russian oil. Trump has been breathing down each movement of Indo-Russian ties. There was even news that the plane Putin was travelling to New Delhi had the most-monitored movements. Trump shadows all.
The Putin visit is not a nostalgic return to Cold War diplomacy. “It is a negotiation over risk, supply chains and economic insulation,” says Global Trade Research Initiative. India has close ties with Russia since the Nehru-Khruschev era ofthe 1950s, the 25-year strategic deal with Indira Gandhi, Putin renewed it in 2000 with AB Vajpayee continuing the legacy. Since then, much has changed both in the Ganga and the Volga, but “Russia ties like a pole star,” says Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while Putin promises
The Ukraine war has added a new NATO-European dimension. The UK is all for NATO but not keen on joining a war. Russia feels isolated in Europe. Ambassadors of Germany, France and the UK wrote a rare joint article in an Indian newspaper criticising Russia’s stance on Ukraine as he landed in New Delhi. Were the NATO allies acting on their own or at the behest of their masters? Trump’s disgust for Russian oil purchases, accusing India of fuelling/funding the Ukraine war, ignites his sanctions to keep both countries cornered, if not exactly on a leash.
For Trump, Putin got the freedom to move out with the Alaska meet for peace negotiations on 15 August, where the two leaders discussed how to end the war. That was the first free trip of Putin outside Moscow since 2020. The next is the celebrated visit to New Delhi. Putin’s New Delhi visit has plenty of optics with modest deliverables. India is balancing Russia and America with caution.
The visit seeks India’s revival of free-trade talks with the $5-trillion Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). With exports weakening due to steep 50% Trump tariffs, two months of declining shipments, a slowdown in manufacturing, and the rupee falling past 90 per dollar, India is urgently seeking new markets. Russia and the EAEU have become priority destinations, as New Delhi works to offset rising pressure on its trade.
India and Russia announced a major expansion of economic ties during Putin’s visit. Both sides launched a new Economic Cooperation Programme aimed at sharply increasing trade and investment, with targets of $100 billion in annual trade by 2030 and $50 billion in mutual investments. Putin also reaffirmed the commitment to complete four more nuclear plants at Kudankulam.
Bilateral trade already hit a record $68.7 billion in 2024–25 from a mere $ 8.1 billion in 2020. Key agreements were signed in energy, finance (including national currency settlements), fertilisers, healthcare, steel, shipbuilding, coal, and banking. India also plans to open new consulates in Russia to deepen official engagement. Defence cooperation remains central, anchored by an existing military and technical pact that runs through 2031.
The national currency settlement reiterated by Putin is a commitment to BRICS. He held talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, attended a business forum and announced the launch of Russia Today (RT), a Kremlin-funded state-controlled TV network. Interestingly, Trump has a dislike for RT.
Even with relatively few major deliverables, the visit provided enough substance for Moscow and New Delhi to reaffirm their “special and privileged strategic partnership.” President Putin praised efforts to expand cooperation, underscored by agreements such as the Russia-India Economic Cooperation Programme, a framework for collaboration on critical minerals and supply chains, and a commitment to strengthen pharmaceutical ties, including a joint factory in the Kaluga region.
Optics did not stop at economics. Opposition leaders Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge were not invited to the dinner hosted for Putin at Rashtrapati Bhavan, though Congress MP Shashi Tharoor was invited. This comes a day after Rahul Gandhi alleged the Modi government is going against “tradition” and doesn’t want him or a representative of the Opposition to meet Putin because of its “insecurity.”
The Putin visit may have more optics left in the domestic and international scenario. Uncanny Trump, sceptical European leaders and neighbourhood developments in Af ghanistan and Iran may have a lot to unfold. Is it the beginning of a new era?
INFA