New Delhi, July 6: Summer temperatures in the national capital could be more like Sharjah, Mumbai like Kolkata and Kathmandu like Mumbai by end of this century, if carbon pollution continues to rise, an international study said. The problem of heatwaves will be felt most acutely in cities, it added.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, earth’s average global surface temperature could rise more than four degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the 21st century, US-based research and communications organisation Climate Central said Wednesday. The current average high temperature in summer in New Delhi is 35.2 degrees Celsius, while in Sharjah (United Arab Emirates) it is 40.2 degrees. Likewise, in Mumbai it is 29.6 degrees, in Kolkata 32.9 degrees and in Kathmandu (Nepal) it is 25 degrees Celsius.
Climate Central downscaled the global climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to see the effect of summer temperatures in various cities by the year 2100. It used two different climate change scenarios — high emissions and moderate emissions — and matched each selected city with a city that already experiences such temperatures.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and Climate Central invited weather presenters from a dozen countries to work with meteorological services and other national experts to explore the implications. For example, by the end of the century the citizens of Paris (where daily summer high temperatures now average 22.7 degrees Celsius) may see high temperatures like people in Fez in Morocco (29.2 degrees) see today.
It said some of the assessed cities could see their average maximum daily temperatures in summer rise by as much as five-nine degrees Celsius. No place on earth is currently as hot as the average high temperatures cities such as Doha and Baghdad could experience if global emissions remain high, it said.
“The enhanced heat — and an expected increase in associated extreme weather like summer storms — will have major implications for energy and water supplies, public health and transportation,” said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas. “More intense heatwaves would also often lead to poorer air quality, which can even be lethal,” he added.
Indian climate experts say 13 of the 15 hottest years in India have been recorded since 2002, with the highest temperature recorded in 2016. This summer, parts of India have experienced abnormally high temperatures in March and April. Heatwaves occur from April to June before the Indian subcontinent is awash with monsoon. IANS
