“God moves in mysterious ways his wonders to perform,” so goes a hymn I read in school. Or perhaps it was a line in P.G. Wodehouse, I forget which. But no matter, the point is that miracles usually happen outside of the knowledge of us mortals. Higher powers are at work.
Something similar is happening in India’s foreign policy. Great things have been achieved in this domain, at least according to the government publicity and the television media (which is admittedly the same thing), but one is unclear about the details.
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To understand our triumphs during a week in which the United Nations held its General Assembly, I thought it might be useful to compile a list of our friends. A foreign policy panchnama, if you will, so that we can better understand precisely where New India stands in the world.
Starting with our neighbourhood, I can report that relations with Pakistan are bad. In fact we might be at ‘war’ with them because our wildly successful military operation against them stands suspended but not yet over. And ‘war’ sits under quotation marks because we have not actually declared war with them. But this is normal now.
Bangladesh also one has to put on the debit side of the ledger. It is demanding we return their prime minister so that she can be prosecuted, and we have so far refused. Its leader wants SAARC to be revived and has blamed India for making it dormant if not extinct. The language our government has used against Bangladeshis is in the public domain, and the recent Asia Cup has given us insight into how many Indians view their players. This government ended the participation of Nepalis in the Indian army in 2022, with the Agnipath scheme, severing a link of 200 years. A blockade instigated by India against Nepalis in 2015 still rankles.
Sri Lanka showed more courage than us in demanding an end to the Gaza genocide. The government’s fans had sought a boycott of the Maldives some time ago because we were upset with them (I cannot remember why), and it is unclear whether we are friends with them at the moment.
Having destroyed their Chinese televisions on the instructions of our leaders, Indians can be forgiven for not knowing what the current status of our relations is. Nobody knows. Afghanistan we have warmed to of late, without explaining why the Taliban we demonised till yesterday is acceptable today. Iran’s oil we stopped buying some eight years ago on Trump’s order, but they still accept our pilgrims.
Donald Trump, for whom we hosted two giant rallies, for whom we slashed our corporate tax, for whom we interfered in US elections, tariffed Pakistan (19%) and Bangladesh (20%), less than us (25%). Then he added another 25% on us. Then he added another $100,000 for H1B visas. Now he has added another tariff on pharma. It is safe to say America is not our friend. But Israel is. The rest of the world may have walked out of Netanyahu’s genocide-justifying speech, but India applauded.
Turkey and Azerbaijan are enemies, because they are Pakistan’s friends. The entire African continent (53 out of 54 nations, all except the old Swaziland) are part of China’s Belt and Road program and it is safe to say we no longer have much influence on them and they have little use for us. Ditto for Central Asia, and for ASEAN nations, and for the same reasons. India’s trade with ASEAN is 10% of its trade with China, and with Africa one fourth.
We have treated Russia as a transactional relationship, using it purely as a source for weaponry and now oil, and they in turn now view us as a client and not a friend, much less an ally. No amount of forced displays of affection, something we are good at, will alter this. With the populations of the Arab states, India has lost ground because of our embrace of Israel. This may not affect relations with the Arab states much, but as an increasingly marginal player in global affairs, prone to being kicked around by America and China, even the Arab dictators now see us differently.
Europe has shifted on Israel, and in value terms, we have moved away from the secular, liberal order that Europe is being forced to return to because of its youth. Our long-term dependence on Russia for hardware and spares means also that we cannot side with Europe in its deranged conviction that Russia is out to conquer Poland and Germany.
Brazil, our BRICS associate, has shown backbone in defying American imperialism that we no longer have. We had hugs and words, many words, in our post-2014 period of self-inflation, but do not even have these now it seems. There has never been a moment in India’s history when it has been so adrift in the world, so confused about what it stands for and against and so humiliated.
This will help readers understand why after years of talking of globalisation and G20 leadership and Vishwaguru and all the rest of it, we are today being lectured on self-reliance. We can call this state of affairs the New New India.
By Aakar Patel
