Dubai: Iran will immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once a tentative deal with the US to end the war is signed and will be allowed to sell its oil without restrictions, according to leaked copies of an interim agreement that officials say broadly matches the document.
The accord, due to be formally signed in a ceremony in Switzerland Friday, lays out that the US would secure at least USD 300 billion to rebuild Iran after the war and work to end all American and United Nations sanctions imposed on Tehran if a final agreement addressing Iran’s nuclear programme is reached.
The US agreement to immediately allow Iran to sell its oil freely and the offer to eventually lift all sanctions represent major concessions that outstrip the terms of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, which US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from in his first term, declaring it the “worst deal ever.” This new accord likely will draw intense criticism in Washington — and appears to be a major setback for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who launched the war with Trump Feb. 28.
The deal calls for an immediate end to all fighting in Lebanon between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah. That is one of the most delicate parts of the agreement because Israel has maintained it will continue to defend itself and to occupy vast swaths of Lebanon. Iran has said it must withdraw under the deal, although the leaked versions make no mention of withdrawal.
The two sides are to start 60 days of negotiations over a final deal that the Trump administration insists will prevent Iran from ever developing a nuclear weapon. The US offers appear aimed at enticing Iran to strike an agreement.
But in the meantime, Iran appears to be getting benefits up front while making few concessions. Much of the agreement would restore the status quo before the war, including ending hostilities and reopening the strait, which is a crucial passage for the world’s oil and natural gas and whose closure created a historic energy crisis.
Other concessions to Iran — some of which are extraordinary, including the money for rebuilding, the full lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets — appear dependent on the progress of further negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
A person who was briefed on the memorandum of understanding after it was signed and another who viewed a copy beforehand said it largely matched the text of what was published by the Saudi-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya, which reported details of the deal Tuesday. The two people spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
Another two officials in the Mideast, who spoke on condition of anonymity for the same reason, also said the versions published by Al Arabiya and Bloomberg broadly matched the final agreement.
The White House and other American officials have not published the terms and did not immediately respond to questions. Iran also has not published an official version of the deal. Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency, close to its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, claimed Wednesday that Bloomberg’s version had missing portions, without offering a full accounting.
The deal would provide relief to the global economy
The deal provides a major win for the global economy — the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil and natural gas traded once passed before the war began. Since then, Iranian attacks on shipping and the threat to vessels effectively shut the strait.
The strait’s closure drove up energy prices around the world and made many basics, including food, more expensive. Iran let out some vessels that paid tolls, something never done before in the strait, which sits in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and long has been considered an international waterway. The US later provided military support to get other tankers out, but traffic through the strait was nowhere near levels before the war.
The deal calls for the US to lift a blockade imposed on Iranian ports and for the strait to return to its prewar traffic levels in 30 days, while acknowledging Iranian mines may still be in its waters that need to be destroyed.
The deal provides major concessions to Iran
While the deal says that the eventual lifting of sanctions on Iran will depend on future negotiations, the US will immediately issue waivers on Iranian oil sales.
Granting oil waivers directly at the start of the 60-day talks strips the US of a major point of leverage over Iran. In the years before the 2015 nuclear deal, Iranian oil faced international sanctions limiting their sales. Only at the conclusion of the overall deal in 2015 were those sanctions lifted.
The interim deal also opens the door to ending all sanctions Iran faces from the US and at the UN — though it says the schedule for that will be worked out later. Still, that is far beyond the 2015 deal, which only lifted some sanctions in exchange for Iran drastically reducing its enrichment and stockpile of uranium.
The accord would also provide Iran with at least USD 300 billion to rebuild after an intense US and Israeli bombing campaign — an extraordinary figure and another major benefit for Iran. US Vice President JD Vance has said Gulf Arab nations would provide that amount as investments in Iran.
The deal leaves much more to be resolved in future negotiations
The interim deal sets a 60-day window, which can be extended, to negotiate over limiting Iran’s nuclear programme, which has been discussed at multiple rounds of talks during Trump’s second administration without success. Iran maintains its nuclear programme is peaceful, though it has enough highly enriched uranium to build multiple atomic bombs, should it choose to do so, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In the interim deal, Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons — a promise that it also made in the 2015 nuclear accord. Iranian diplomats have long pointed to statements from the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that Iran wouldn’t build an atomic bomb. It remains unclear whether Khamenei’s son, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, will follow that or not.
Trump has cited shifting goals for the war, including at times vowing it would end Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes and its support for Hezbollah and other proxy groups in the region. He also suggested it could lead to toppling the Iranian government.
The interim deal falls short of all of these goals. The negotiations also exposed a rift between Netanyahu and Trump, the Israeli leader’s closest and most important ally, just as Netanyahu is seeking reelection. Netanyahu has come under heavy domestic criticism over the emerging deal but will be hard pressed to go against Trump, given Israel’s heavy reliance on the US for diplomatic and military support.
