Post news network
Bhubaneswar, April 22: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Wednesday predicted below normal monsoon as an effect of El Nino on the southwest monsoon that is likely to hit the state in June.
El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino southern oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central Pacific. El Nino may lead to drought in some regions and floods in others.
“Currently, weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Pacific. The latest forecast indicates that El Nino conditions are likely to persist during the southwest monsoon season,” said IMD in its release.
El Nino would have the maximum effect on north-west and central India during monsoon, according to these predictions.
In the last six months, there has been positive sea surface temperature over the western and central Pacific Ocean. However, the temperature over the eastern Pacific between late December and mid-March has been above normal.
“At present, slight negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecast from the coupled model indicates negative IOD conditions are likely to persist during the monsoon season,” said the release.
“The Indian subcontinent has witnessed El Nino in 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2006. However, except in 2002, the effect of El Nino on Orissa has not been that severe. The picture about the El Nino probability will be clear after the second forecast that will come in June,” said Met director Sarat Sahu.
Orissa, during the southwest monsoon from June to September, receives around 1,150mm rain. Based on that the weather officials calculate the amount of rainfall and decide whether monsoon was deficient, access or normal in state.
