Dubai: Widening protests in Iran sparked by the Islamic Republic’s ailing economy are putting new pressure on its theocracy.
Tehran is still reeling from a 12-day war launched by Israel in June that saw the United States bomb nuclear sites in Iran. Economic pressure, which has intensified since September when the United Nations reimposed sanctions on the country over its atomic program, has put Iran’s rial currency into a free fall, now trading at some 1.4 million to USD 1.
Meanwhile, Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” — a coalition of countries and militant groups backed by Tehran — has been decimated in the years since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in 2023.
A threat by US President Donald Trump warning Iran that if Tehran “violently kills peaceful protesters, the US will come to their rescue,” has taken on new meaning after American troops captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a longtime ally of Tehran.
“We’re watching it very closely,” Trump told journalists aboard Air Force One late Sunday. “If they start killing people as they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States.”
Here’s what to know about the protests and the challenges facing Iran’s government.
How widespread are the protests are
Demonstrations have reached over 220 locations in 26 of Iran’s 31 provinces, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported early Monday. The death toll had reached at least 20 killed, it added, with more than 990 arrests. The group, which relies on an activist network inside Iran for its reporting, has been accurate in past unrest.
Understanding the scale of the protests has been difficult. Iranian state media has provided little information about the demonstrations. Online videos offer only brief, shaky glimpses of people in the streets or the sound of gunfire. Journalists in general in Iran also face limits on reporting, such as requiring permission to travel around the country, as well as the threat of harassment or arrest by authorities.
But the protests do not appear to be stopping, even after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Saturday said “rioters must be put in their place.”
Why did the demonstrations start?
The collapse of the Rial (Iran’s currency) has led to a widening economic crisis in the country. Prices are up on meat, rice and other staples of the Iranian dinner table. The nation has been struggling with an annual inflation rate of some 40 per cent.
In December, Iran introduced a new pricing tier for its nationally subsidised gasoline, raising the price of some of the world’s cheapest gas and further pressuring the population. Tehran may seek steeper price increases in the future, as the government will review prices every three months.
The protests began with merchants in Tehran before spreading. While initially focused on economic issues, the demonstrations soon saw protesters chanting anti-government statements as well. Anger has been simmering over the years, particularly after the 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody, which triggered nationwide demonstrations.
Iran’s alliances are weakened
Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which grew in prominence in the years after the 2003 US-led invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq, is reeling.
Israel has crushed Hamas in the devastating war in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group in Lebanon, has seen its top leadership killed by Israel and has been struggling since. A lightning offensive in December 2024 overthrew Iran’s longtime stalwart ally and client in Syria, President Bashar Assad, after years of war there. Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels also have been pounded by Israeli and US airstrikes.
China, meanwhile, has remained a major buyer of Iranian crude oil, but hasn’t provided overt military support. Neither has Russia, which has relied on Iranian drones in its war on Ukraine.
The West worries about Iran’s nuclear programme
Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear programme is peaceful. However, its officials have increasingly threatened to pursue a nuclear weapon.
Tehran also increasingly cut back its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, as tensions increased over its nuclear program in recent years. The IAEA’s director-general has warned Iran could build as many as 10 nuclear bombs, should it decide to weaponise its program.
US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”
Iran recently said it was no longer enriching uranium at any site in the country, trying to signal to the West that it remains open to potential negotiations over its atomic program to ease sanctions. But there’s been no significant talks in the months since the June war.
Why are relations between Iran and the US so tense
Iran decades ago was one of the United States’ top allies in the Mideast under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighbouring Soviet Union. The CIA fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah’s rule.
But in January 1979, the shah, fatally ill with cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule. Then came the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, which created Iran’s theocratic government.
Later that year, university students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah’s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the US severed.
During the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the US backed Saddam Hussein. During that conflict, the US launched a one-day assault that crippled Iran at sea as part of the so-called “Tanker War,” and later shot down an Iranian commercial airliner that the US military said it mistook for a warplane.
Iran and the US have seesawed between enmity and grudging diplomacy in the years since, and relations peaked with the 2015 nuclear deal, which saw Iran greatly limit its program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. But Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking tensions in the Mideast that intensified after Hamas’ Oct.
AP
