India lost 247 billion potential labour hours to extreme heat in 2024. Agriculture absorbed 66% of that loss. Construction accounted for 20%. The income equivalent, calculated by the Lancet Countdown in its 2025 report, was $194 billion. That figure was 124% higher than the annual average in the 1990s. These are not projections. They are recorded outcomes from a single year.
Odisha sits near the centre of this pattern. The IMD places Bolangir, Nuapada, Bargarh, Sonepur, and Kalahandi under recurring red alerts each summer. These districts are not peripheral. They form the state’s primary labour-sending belt. When temperatures cross 44 degrees Celsius by late April and persist through June, those most affected are daily wage earners. They have no paid leave, no cooling infrastructure, and no buffer between a missed day and lost income.
The economic mechanism is direct. A worker who stops at noon earns half. A worker who falls sick earns nothing and incurs medical costs. A 2024 study in Environment Research Letters finds that a one-degree rise in maximum temperature reduces net earnings by 14%. A one-degree rise in wet-bulb temperature reduces earnings by 19%. During peak heatwave periods, earnings fall by about 40%, compared to non-heatwave days. The primary cause is illness.
In Bolangir and Nuapada, these losses extend beyond summer. They lengthen the migration cycle. A reply tabled in the Odisha Assembly in 2026 reported distress migration rising from around 50,000 workers in 2024 to over 65,000 in 2025. Bolangir recorded the highest outflow. In 2024, 626 workers rescued from exploitative conditions were from Bolangir, and 153 were from Nuapada. These are official figures.
The link between heat and migration is mediated through local constraints. In Bolangir, less than a quarter of agricultural land is irrigated. Rainfall has declined. The cultivation window is already short. When heat compresses it further, and when MGNREGS work ends before guaranteed days are delivered, income options collapse. Government data show that average workdays under MGNREGS in Bolangir stood near 57 days, far below the state commitment of 300. In Nuapada, the figure was about 78 days. The gap drives migration.
Odisha extended MGNREGS to 300 days annually in select ed districts in 2020, covering the wage gap up to the state minimum of Rs 352 per day. The commitment is substantive. However, work schedules do not adjust for extreme heat. Tasks remain outdoors and physically demanding. Requiring earthwork during peak heat concentrates risk when exposure is highest.
The Labour Department identifies 14 migration-prone districts under its State Action Plan. District Heat Action Plans recommend restricting outdoor work between 11 am and 3 pm during heatwaves. The recommendation exists on paper. There is no public compliance data confirming consistent enforcement at MGNREGS worksites.
Policy still treats heat primarily as a health emergency. Under the Disaster Management Act 2005, 12 disaster categories qualify for State Disaster Response Fund assistance. Heatwaves are excluded. The 15th Finance Commission declined inclusion. A Lok Sabha reply 25 July, 2024 confirmed no change is planned.
This exclusion carries fiscal consequences. Cyclones trigger formal response and compensation. Heat erodes in come gradually and generates no claim. Odisha’s disaster response system has no parallel mechanism for heat.
Measurement gaps worsen the problem. Income losses in the informal sectors do not enter official indicators. Reduced hours, medical spending, and household borrowing remain uncounted.
Corrective steps are feasible. MGNREGS schedules in affected districts should shift to early morning during May and June. Red alert restrictions must apply explicitly to worksites. At the national level, inclusion of heatwaves in the disaster list would enable a fiscal response. Without this, income loss remains invisible in policy terms.
The cost is already borne locally. Recognition determines whether that burden shifts or persists.
The writer is a policy researcher working on governance, development policy, and AI ethics.