Even before his inauguration as US President for the second term 20 January, Donald Trump had scored two big wins – having a hand in the release of hostages to Israel by Hamas as part of a Gaza ceasefi re deal and saving TikTok, at least for now, which briefl y, for 24 hours, shut down in the US to comply with a federal ban imposed over fears the social media site could be manipulated by China. Each breakthrough bears the true Trump stamp – showmanship and use of presidential power. But these initial “wins” are hardly any indication of the tectonic changes that are on the cards as per Trump’s election campaign. The new challenges will require a far-sighted strategic vision that he did not always show in his first term. Experts, however, believe Trump has now matured enough from what he was during his first presidency. He appears to have learnt lessons from his past mistakes and chosen his team more carefully and with far greater degree of confidence than what he did last time.
A day before he assumed office, Trump had clearly indicated how thunderous his new term would be. His statement that “by the time the sun sets tomorrow evening, the invasion of our borders will have come to a halt, and all the illegal border trespassers will be on their way back home” reflects his determination to implement what he promised to his voters. The whole world will be watching how he is going to deliver on his other pledges to defeat inflation, provide the lowest-cost energy on Earth, cut taxes, slash prices, raise wages and return thousands of factories to the US with the use of tariffs. He has also declared he would end the war in Ukraine, stop “chaos” in the Middle East, prevent World War III, crush violent crimes in cities and rebuild the police and the military. As Los Angeles had been burning due to wildfires, Trump said he would rebuild it and make it more “beautiful than before.” He plans to visit Los Angeles later this week.
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As can be seen, Trump will be on a signing spree from his first day in the White House and is expected to issue over 100 executive orders which are intended to be a shock and awe campaign. As his incoming Press secretary, Karoline Leavitt has put it: “He will use the power of his pen to deliver on many of the promises he made to the American people on the campaign trail.”
Changes to America’s immigration policies are likely to be profound and controversial. “Mass deportations” have been promised repeatedly and Trump has filled his inner circle with advisors who are staunch supporters of anti-immigration. Undocumented migrants are likely to be the focus. There are an estimated 11 million people who belong to this category in the US at the moment. It has been suggested that the military could be used to help round up undocumented migrants in cities across the country. This will include immigrants who have been in the country for many years waiting for the chance to change their immigration status. Many of the undocumented migrants will have family members born here who are therefore US citizens. To deal with this problem Trump has proposed banning birthright citizenship – an American right enshrined in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.
However, it is not clear yet to what extent these policies are enforceable. Present conditions indicate his immigration plans are likely to face significant legal challenges. Trump however is expected to send the message across that he means business and will take visually impactful actions.
On the energy front, Trump is likely to turn Biden’s limits on drilling offshore upside down as he is an advocate of fossil fuel. For this reason, there is hardly any doubt that he will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. President Biden rejoined the agreement after Trump pulled out during his first term. There is also the issue of export of natural gas which was banned by the previous administration.
On many occasions during the election campaign, Trump said he would pardon people convicted for their role in the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol made to prevent the 2020 election from being ratified. His statement last month in this regard is significant: “I’ll be looking at J6 early on, maybe the first nine minutes.”
Trade and tariffs will be an issue that will have international repercussions. Weeks after his election, Trump promised he would sign an executive order to implement a 25 per cent tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, two of America’s biggest trading partners. Now, the question is whether there will be any difference between election rhetoric and reality. The world will wait and watch to what extent Trump’s electoral pledges are going to be matched by actual actions.
India has already had an early taste of Trump’s second beginning. PM Modi not getting invited to the Inauguration has been a major setback for his supporters within the country. It has also shown that the influential group of Indian-origin people in the US no longer believes in the bravado that was being demonstrated earlier. To top this, the invite extended to Nita and Mukesh Ambani was a clear sign that Trump too has taken sides.
