New Delhi: India is set to reduce its direct imports of Russian crude from late November, following new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21.
Indian refiners accounting for more than half of the country’s import of Russian crude oil, which is turned into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries, are expected to comply with the latest sanctions on Moscow’s two largest oil exporters, analysts said.
This, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, will trigger a sharp decline in Russian arrivals in December, with gradual recovery projected through early 2026 via intermediaries and alternative trading routes.
Top importer Reliance Industries Ltd, which has a long-term supply contract with Rosneft, will stop taking Russian oil. Two other state-controlled refiners have said they are stopping Russian oil imports. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, a joint venture of steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal’s Mittal Energy and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), have announced plans to suspend future imports.
The three accounted for more than half of the 1.8 million barrels of Russian crude oil imported in the first half of 2025.
However, Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, partially owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions, is likely to maintain its Russian crude intake.
According to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler, Russia remained India’s top crude supplier in October, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Russian shipments to India reached 1.6-1.8 million barrels per day (mbd) before the sanctions, with declines observed post-October 21 as refiners avoided potential US OFAC exposure.
Analysts say Russian barrels are unlikely to disappear entirely, but future imports will rely on more complex logistics and trading arrangements.
To offset reduced Russian flows, Indian refiners are increasing procurement from the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States. US crude imports hit 5,68,000 barrels per day (kbd) in October, the highest since March 2021, driven by economics and arbitrage opportunities rather than sanctions. Flows are expected to normalise to 250-350 kbd in December and January.
“We see reductions in Russian crude arrival in post-November 21,” he said.
“Most Indian refiners are expected to comply with US sanctions and halt or reduce direct crude purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil. This is likely to trigger a sharp decline in Russian crude import in December, followed by a gradual recovery through mid-to-late Q1 2026, as new trading intermediaries emerge and alternative routes are established.”
In contrast, Nayara Energy’s 400 kbd Vadinar refinery is unlikely to alter its current procurement pattern, as it is already almost entirely reliant on Russian crude.
“To offset reduced direct Russian inflows, Indian refiners are expected to increase procurement from the Middle East, Brazil, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States,” he said.
“However, higher freight costs could limit the scale of substitution by eroding arbitrage opportunities.”
Overall, refiners are likely to broaden their import baskets, with higher inflows from Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Guyana), the United States, West Africa, and the Middle East. While near-term Russian imports may dip starting in December, Russian barrels will continue reaching India through intermediaries, he said.
PTI
