A fractured verdict in Jammu and Kashmir and a clear a go-ahead in Jharkhand is how the assembly election results in two states have shaped up, mercilessly throwing the ruling dispensations out. The anti-incumbency factor was evidently at work, with many top leaders falling by the wayside. There is little surprise at the way things turned out, especially considering the kind of governance the two states witnessed in recent times.
The keenly watched results in Jammu and Kashmir, where stakes were high for the contending parties individually and the nation in particular, are such that what can at best be expected is an unstable government. The top performer in the polls, the PDP of Mehbooba Mufti and father Mufti Mohd Saeed, is keeping its options open in a scenario in which everyone is ‘not disinclined’ to support her party to form the next government. That’s indication there would be no hung assembly, and the sentiments of the Kashmiri Muslim population will ultimately be not hurt.
At the same time, what cannot be lost sight of is the bitter divide that was evident in the polling pattern: predominantly Hindu Jammu backing the BJP while the Valley, that saw an unusual turnout at the polls this time, wholeheartedly backing the PDP as a safeguard against the BJP move to install a Hindu chief minister this time. In other words, the mystery behind the unusual voter turnout in Kashmir this time is solved. It was essentially a vote against the BJP designs. However, in the process, democracy won and Kashmiris have reasserted their commitment to be part of the Indian Union. What also should be of concern to the BJP, that overall put up a good performance by grabbing the Congress votes massively this time, is its total rout from Ladakh as well. Prime Minister Narendra Damodardass Modi’s Mission44+ campaign – seeking a majority for the party in the assembly – has failed to materialize, even as it won the largest share of votes for a single party this time.
Both the Congress party and the National Conference of the Abdullahs, which shared power, were humbled at the hustings; its damage intensified by the fact that Chief Minister Omar Abdullah was defeated albeit by a small margin in a Srinagar constituency. Several of his ministers too were trounced in the massive anti-NC verdict. That the Omar Abdullah government proved to be a burden on the state was clear from its failure on all fronts, so much so when the massive floods struck the Valley he started beating his chest and wailing that his government itself was washed away. He could even not take advantage of the presence of father Abdullah in the former Union Government and his own friendship with Rahul Gandhi, who called the shots from Delhi under the UPA II government. Feelings were that the jet-set CM had little time to care for the plight of the people.
Jharkhand, carved out of Bihar 15 years ago, is failing to stand on its own despite the heavy presence of natural resources. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha government there had proven to be a case of how not to govern a state, with corruption and administrative flaws making the lives of the people more miserable in the largely tribal and partly urbanized state. The state’s failure to check Maoist attacks added to the government’s failures. Not only outgoing chief minister Hemant Soren was defeated in one seat, but heavyweights like former chief minister Arjun Munda too were humbled at the hustings, demonstrating people’s disenchantment with the governing process as a whole there. The beneficiary was obviously the BJP, that has promised carrots in the form of speedy development of the state with generous help from the Centre – PM Modi’s campaign plank for his party there. That the people have not wholeheartedly trusted such promises is evident from the way the BJP failed to win a majority of its own in the 81-member assembly.
In other words, the BJP’s over-ambitious offensive against regional parties has not met with the success it expected this time. PDP is in the forefront in Jammu and Kashmir, while in Jharkhand it has to depend on ally AJSU to run the next government. The saffron party could however take comfort in the fact that it further weakened the already down-and-out Congress and strengthened its own position in two more states.
