Mumbai: The Indian equity market is expected to maintain its northward trajectory in the week ahead as healthy fourth quarter (Q4) earning numbers and anticipation of a stable Central government buoy investors’ sentiments, analysts said.
Additionally, market observers pointed out that April derivatives expiry will be another major factor in equity market’s trajectory next week.
“In anticipation of the upcoming election results, the stock indices have remained in a narrow range,” Sahil Kapoor, Chief Market Strategist, Edelweiss Professional Investor Research said.
“We expect this range to break upwards and result in further strength. Expect buoyancy in the mid and small-cap space. Large cap stocks will take cues from the monthly F&O expiry this week before making a directional move upwards.” According to Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services: “In the near-term, investor’s focus will be on Q4 earnings and elections. Net profit of Nifty50 companies is expected to grow by 20 per cent YoY (year-on-year) for Q4FY19. The growth is mainly driven by banking sector due to low base in Q4FY18. For the week ahead, results from key index heavy weights including large corporate banks will set the tone for earnings season.”
Companies such as ACC, Axis Bank, Biocon, Cyient, Maruti Suzuki, SBI Life Insurance, Hero MotoCorp, Yes Bank, Tata Global Beverages, Bharti Infratel, Indiabulls Housing Finance and UltraTech Cement are expected to announce their Q4 earning results in the coming week.
Besides the quarterly numbers, US-China trade talks will provide further cues to the investors, said D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director, SMC Investments & Advisors.
Furthermore, the movement of rupee against the US dollar is also expected to influence trends on the bourse next week. The rupee on a weekly basis weakened to 69.35 per greenback.
“This week can be a bit helpful for rupee to appreciate on back of corporate forex flows and bond raising,” said Sajal Gupta, Head Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities.
“Crude trading around $72 per barrel would not let rupee appreciate too much… Expect the week range to be again 68.90 to 69.80.” In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors bought scrip worth Rs 2,790.26 crore during the week.
“Continuity in FIIs flows and corporate earnings coming in-line with expectation will keep market float,” Nair said.
On technical levels, Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities said that Nifty remains in an intermediate uptrend and “further upsides are likely in the coming week once the immediate highs of 11,857 points are cleared”.
“Crucial supports to watch for a trend reversal are now at 11,550.”
—ians
