New Delhi: WPI inflation data, foreign investor trading activity, crude oil prices, and developments in West Asia will drive investor sentiment this week, analysts said.
Globally, US retail sales, Nvidia’s earnings and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will shape global rate expectations and tech sentiment, an expert said.
“Movements in crude oil, the dollar, US Treasury yields and FII flows will remain important determinants of market direction. The domestic economic calendar will be busy, with October WPI inflation and merchandise trade data scheduled for Monday, 16 November,” Ajit Mishra, SVP Research, Religare Broking, said.
Globally, investors will track the US retail sales, FOMC meeting minutes and US jobless claims for cues on economic growth and the future monetary policy trajectory, he added.
“Indian equities are expected to trade with a positive bias this week, extending their gradual upmove. Record buying by foreign institutional investors, strong domestic fundamentals and encouraging second-quarter earnings season support the positive sentiment.
“Globally, investors will track Japan’s GDP, US retail sales, UK and EU inflation, US jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes,” Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said.
Foreign investors made a strong comeback to Indian equities in the first fortnight of November, pouring in Rs 84,290 crore after two consecutive months of net outflows, amid a global AI sell-off, falling crude prices and attractive large-cap valuations.
“Developments in global markets will remain another important influence on domestic sentiment, particularly the technology-led volatility on Wall Street. Concerns over stretched artificial intelligence valuations and the sustainability of semiconductor investment have triggered intermittent selling in global technology stocks.
“A deeper correction in this segment could dampen broader risk appetite and weigh on sentiment towards Indian IT companies. Investors will also monitor US Treasury yields and the dollar, as further strength in either could tighten financial conditions and influence capital flows into emerging markets,” Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.
Crude oil prices and currency movements will remain important external factors, he added.
Last week, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 564.43 points, or 0.69 per cent, and the 50-share NSE Nifty was up 113.95 points or 0.45 per cent.
“Developments in the US bond market will remain a key determinant of foreign flows. Strong US retail activity or hawkish signals in the Federal Open Market Committee minutes could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary conditions, keeping Treasury yields above the 5 per cent threshold. Crude oil presents another important variable for domestic sentiment,” said Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, a Research Analyst firm.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said, “Markets will start pricing the RBI’s response ahead of its December policy review, with crude and foreign flows the other key watchpoints”.