Washington/New Delhi: Pakistan continues to regard India as an existential threat and is accelerating the expansion of its nuclear weapons programme in response, according to the United States Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) in its 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment.
The report raises fresh concerns about growing military tensions and the risk of conflict in South Asia.
Despite India’s conventional military superiority, Pakistan remains focused on strengthening its deterrence through the development of tactical, or battlefield, nuclear weapons. The DIA estimates Pakistan’s current nuclear stockpile at approximately 170 warheads, warning that this number could rise to 200 by the end of 2025. Unlike India, Pakistan has not adopted a ‘No First Use’ policy.
The report outlines Pakistan’s key military priorities, which include counter-terrorism operations, managing cross-border tensions, and nuclear modernisation—efforts reportedly supported by China. The document also highlights close and expanding military ties between Islamabad and Beijing, including regular joint exercises and the supply of weapons-related materials via countries such as Hong Kong, Turkey, and the UAE.
“Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control. Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries,” the report says. WMD here means Weapons of Mass Destruction.
In contrast, India views China as its principal strategic adversary, with Pakistan considered a secondary threat to be managed. The DIA states that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to continue focusing on countering Chinese influence, strengthening India’s defence partnerships, and modernising the armed forces.
Tensions escalated in early May following Indian missile strikes on terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, in response to a late April terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir. Several days of retaliatory missile, drone, and artillery exchanges followed before both sides agreed to a ceasefire 10 May.
The DIA warns that without sustained dialogue, the potential for future escalation remains high. With Pakistan’s deepening alliance with China and both nations enhancing their military capabilities, South Asia remains a critical flashpoint for potential nuclear conflict.
Agencies
